宝城期货国债期货早报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2506 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, with an overall view of range oscillation. The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it will mainly be in short - term oscillatory consolidation [1]. - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is range oscillation. The short - term treasury bond futures are expected to be mainly in oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday, and after the Sino - US经贸 relations entered a stage of relaxation, the safe - haven demand for treasury bonds declined rapidly, while the risk preference for risk assets increased rapidly. In the long - term, the policy basis for the upward movement of treasury bonds is relatively solid, but in the short - term, the possibility of further interest rate cuts has decreased, and the situation of Sino - US consultations needs to be continuously monitored [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2506, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is oscillatory strong, with a range oscillatory view. The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in short - term oscillatory consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is range oscillation. The core logic is that yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and declined, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest decline. After the Sino - US经贸 relations entered a stage of relaxation, the safe - haven demand for treasury bonds declined rapidly, and the risk preference for risk assets increased rapidly. In the long - term, the policy basis for the upward movement of treasury bonds is relatively solid, but in the short - term, after the central bank cuts interest rates and the reserve ratio, it is necessary to observe the performance of macro - economic indicators, and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve also disturbs the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm, reducing the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short - term. The Sino - US relaxation expectation has reduced the safe - haven demand for treasury bonds, but the possibility of the US side's repetition still exists, and the subsequent Sino - US consultations need to be continuously monitored [4].