Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various energy and chemical products are affected by multiple factors including supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic conditions, and tariff policies. Different products show different trends in the short and medium - term, with some expected to be in a low - level shock state, while others are more likely to be short - term supported but face supply pressure in the medium - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - Price Information: On May 12, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4836 yuan/ton (+31), the Changzhou market price was 4650 yuan/ton (-10), the main basis was - 186 yuan/ton (+41), the Guangzhou market price was 4750 yuan/ton (0), and the Hangzhou market price was 4700 yuan/ton (-30) [2]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In the long - term, demand is sluggish due to the real - estate drag, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, and inventory is still high. It is in a state of loose supply - demand [2]. - Macro - factors: China and the US will reduce tariffs on each other's goods within 90 days. The short - term tariff relaxation exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. The domestic first - quarter data is good, and there may be some support for exports in the second quarter. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short - term [2]. Caustic Soda - Price Information: On May 12, the main SH09 contract closed at 2545 yuan/ton (+69), the Shandong market mainstream price was 830 yuan/ton (+10), and the converted 100% price was 2594 yuan/ton (+31). The liquid chlorine price in Shandong was 150 yuan/ton (-50). From May 13, a Shandong alumina manufacturer raised the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In the short - term, production reduction and tariff relaxation provide support. In the medium - term, supply is still relatively sufficient, and demand growth is limited. The 09 contract is still mainly short - biased in the medium - term [3]. - Key Points to Watch: Pay attention to the delivery volume of Weiqiao, inventory reduction, alumina production and export, the possible support of weak liquid chlorine prices for caustic soda, and the scale and continuity of maintenance from June to August [3]. Rubber - Price Information: On May 12, rubber was running strongly. As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45 tons and an increase of 0.73%. There are also detailed price data for raw materials, finished products, and basis differences [4][5]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In the short - term, the supply of latex is slow, and the raw material price remains high, providing bottom support for the rubber price. The inventory in Qingdao is slightly increasing, and the market is expected to fluctuate [4]. Urea - Price Information: The main urea contract fell 0.26% to close at 1897 yuan/ton. The daily average price in the Henan market increased by 23 yuan/ton to 1918 yuan/ton, and the daily average price in the Shandong market increased by 68 yuan/ton to 1916 yuan/ton [6]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is stable, with a daily output of 19.5 - 200,000 tons. The demand for rice fertilization in the south and corn base fertilization in the north will be concentrated, and there is also some elasticity in exports. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock state in the short - term [6]. - Key Points to Watch: Pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer, urea plant production reduction and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [6]. Methanol - Price Information: The main methanol contract rose 1.79% to close at 2270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is expected to continue to increase, while downstream demand is wait - and - see. It is expected that the decline will slow down, and the reference range for the 09 contract is 2200 - 2350 [7][8]. - Key Points to Watch: Pay attention to macro - changes, methanol plant maintenance, methanol - to - olefin start - up, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [8]. Plastic - Price Information: On May 12, the main plastic contract rose 1.08% to close at 7090 yuan/ton. There are also price data for different types of plastics [9]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In April, the plastic price dropped significantly due to tariffs. The supply side has new capacity in the second quarter, and the demand side is weak. The inventory of upstream enterprises and traders has increased, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [9]. - Key Points to Watch: Pay attention to downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff games, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].
能源化工日报-20250513
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-13 01:47