工业硅：盘面预计高开低走，多晶硅：减产消息发酵，盘面偏强运行

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The industrial silicon futures market is expected to open high and close low, while the polysilicon market is expected to be strong due to the fermentation of production cut news [1][2] - The trend strength of industrial silicon is -1, indicating a bearish view, while the trend strength of polysilicon is 1, indicating a bullish view [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For industrial silicon futures Si2506, the closing price was 8,320 yuan/ton, with a decrease compared to previous periods; the trading volume was 249,065 lots, showing a decline; the open interest was 171,625 lots, showing an increase. For polysilicon futures PS2506, the closing price was 38,450 yuan/ton, with an increase; the trading volume was 322,808 lots, showing a decline; the open interest was 69,417 lots, showing an increase [2] - Basis and Spread: The basis and spread of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts showed different trends compared to previous periods. For example, the near - month contract to the continuous first spread of industrial silicon was -100 yuan/ton [2] - Spot Prices and Profits: Spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed varying degrees of change. For instance, the price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9100 yuan/ton, showing a decline. Silicon factory profits were mostly negative, while polysilicon enterprise profits were -2.5 yuan/kg [2] - Inventory: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 59.6 million tons, with a decrease compared to a week ago. The total industry inventory (social + enterprise) was 86.1 million tons, also showing a decline [2] - Raw Material Costs: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, and petroleum coke showed different trends. For example, the price of Xinjiang silicon ore was 440 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2] - Prices and Profits in Downstream Industries: In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) industry, prices of products like silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed declines. In the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries, prices and profits also showed different trends [2] 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On the 9th, the 1.2 - gigawatt Huadian Xineng Zhongza photovoltaic project, the largest single - photovoltaic project under construction in Sichuan Province, officially started. It is located in Zhongza Town, Batang County, Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province, and is a key project in the "14th Five - Year Plan" [2][4]