合成橡胶：宏观修复，偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run relatively strongly with the overall repair of macro - sentiment, following the upward trends of the rubber sector and crude oil. Although the fundamentals of butadiene - based cis - polybutadiene rubber currently have a neutral driving force, its relatively low valuation provides some support for the price [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the cis - polybutadiene rubber main contract (06 contract), the daily closing price was 11,820 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 189,461 lots, an increase of 78,727 lots; the open interest was 25,672 lots, up 1,552 lots; and the trading volume was 1,092,299 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 458,352 ten - thousand yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong cis - polybutadiene minus the futures main contract was - 70 yuan, down 320 yuan from the previous day; the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 North China cis - polybutadiene (private) was - 20 yuan, down 150 yuan from the previous day; the price of East China cis - polybutadiene (private) increased by 200 yuan, and the price of South China cis - polybutadiene (private) increased by 150 yuan [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The market price of Shandong cis - polybutadiene (delivery product) was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) was 12,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 11,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan, and the mainstream price in Shandong was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan [1]. 3.1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The operating rate of cis - polybutadiene was 79.4979%, down 0.17% from the previous day; the theoretical full cost of cis - polybutadiene was 12,388 yuan/ton, up 309 yuan; the profit of cis - polybutadiene was - 488 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry News 3.2.1 Butadiene Market - The price of Asian butadiene remains stable, and the domestic butadiene fundamentals have improved, with support around 9300 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to ethylene plant maintenance. Short - term import arrivals are limited. The demand from the synthetic rubber sector has increased, and the inventory of butadiene producers and ports has risen [1][3]. 3.2.2 Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber Market - The fundamentals of cis - polybutadiene rubber currently have a neutral driving force. However, due to the previous significant decline, its low valuation provides support. There is no significant inventory build - up, and the high NR - BR spread has improved the demand for cis - polybutadiene, thus supporting the price [3].