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宝城期货甲醇早报-20250513
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-13 01:52

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Tuesday. The market sentiment is improved by the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and although there is an increase in supply, the downstream demand has also improved [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - Short - term: The methanol 2509 shows an oscillating pattern [1]. - Medium - term: It is oscillating with a slightly weaker tendency [1][5]. - Intraday: It is oscillating with a slightly stronger tendency, and the reference view is a stronger operation [1][5]. 3.2 Core Drivers - Supply: Although the production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol has declined, with multiple sets of devices restarting before the festival, the supply pressure has risen again, and the weekly production has reached a new high. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 205.78 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.78 million tons, and a significant increase of 35.20 million tons compared with 170.58 million tons in the same period last year [5]. - Demand: The downstream demand has improved. The recovery of the futures profit of methanol - to - olefins has boosted the purchasing enthusiasm at ports, and the port inventory has been smoothly reduced [5]. - Market Sentiment: In the context of real - time progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted. The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract rose 1.43% to 2277 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday [5].