ZBOM(SH:603801) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-13 02:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 5.258 billion, 385 million, and 340 million yuan in 2024, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 14%, 35%, and 38%. For Q4 2024, the figures are projected to be 1.583 billion, 119 million, and 107 million yuan, with year-on-year declines of 28%, 51%, and 52% [2][6]. - Since Q4 2024, national subsidies have shown effectiveness, and the decline in retail has narrowed, with expectations for continued improvement in Q2 2025. The focus will be on potential and cost control, optimizing organizational structure to support development in southern markets, and firmly executing overseas strategies [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have total revenue of 5.258 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 1.907 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 36%. The net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 385 million yuan, with an EPS of 0.89 yuan [16]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue is expected to be 1.583 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36% and a net profit of 119 million yuan [6][16]. Market and Operational Insights - Retail revenue from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 is expected to decline by 12% year-on-year, an improvement from a 15% decline in Q3 2024. Direct sales have increased by 92% year-on-year, attributed to the national subsidy program [11]. - The company plans to optimize its store structure, with a net change of -276, -215, and +3 stores in kitchen cabinets, wardrobes, and wooden doors, respectively, during 2024 [11]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance customer value through a whole-home model and accelerate resource allocation to southern markets. It will also focus on overseas markets, particularly in Australia and North America, while exploring opportunities in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [11]. - The mid-term growth strategy is clear, with expectations for significant revenue growth in customized and supporting products, as well as in the whole-home channel and southern and overseas markets [11].