Jiangshan Oupai(SH:603208) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-13 02:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 are projected to be 3.001 billion, 109 million, and 71 million respectively, representing declines of 20%, 72%, and 79% year-on-year [2][6] - The revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to be 743 million, with net profit attributable to the parent and net profit excluding non-recurring items at -55 million and -63 million respectively, indicating a 28% year-on-year decline [6] - For Q1 2025, the revenue is projected at 402 million, with net profit attributable to the parent and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 3 million and -23 million respectively, reflecting a 36% year-on-year decline [6] - The revenue is under pressure due to the macroeconomic environment, but the number of distributors continues to expand [2][6] - The company is optimizing its business structure, with an increasing proportion of cash-clearance business and non-residential demand [2][6] - Short-term profitability is under pressure, but there is a focus on marketing transformation to drive new growth points [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and profitability due to external economic factors, with significant drops in both net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 [2][6] - The revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 is expected to decline significantly, with Q4 showing a 28% drop and Q1 a 36% drop year-on-year [6] Business Structure and Growth - The company is expanding its distributor network, with a net increase of 25,951 distributors in 2024, bringing the total to 62,518, and a further increase of 6,303 in Q1 2025 [2][6] - The business structure is being optimized, with a shift towards cash-clearance and non-residential projects, reducing reliance on new residential demand [2][6] Marketing and Future Outlook - The company is actively promoting marketing changes to identify new growth opportunities, focusing on quality strategic clients and expanding distribution channels [2][6] - Future net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 150 million, 220 million, and 290 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 11, and 9 times [2][6]