方正中期期货铁合金日度策略-20250513

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily strategy for ferroalloys, covering manganese silicon (MnSi) and ferrosilicon (FeSi), including market logic, trading strategies, and option strategies [1][3][4] - It also presents ferroalloy fundamentals such as weekly production and demand, inventory, and production costs [14] Group 2: Important News - On May 12, 2025, the US and China issued a joint statement on the Geneva economic and trade talks, reducing tariffs on each other's goods to 30% and 10% respectively [1] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan would not reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US without including automobile tariffs and was considering increasing corn imports from the US [1] - From January to April 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% and 10.8%, breaking through the 10 million mark for the first time [2] Group 3: Manganese Silicon (MnSi) Market Logic - The weak overall expectation for the black metal sector remains unchanged. The easing of tariffs only affects the decline rate and raises the pressure level, but it is only a rebound, not a reversal [3] - Since manganese ore is mainly imported, the rebound amplitude of MnSi may be relatively high. Although hot metal production remains at a high level of about 2.46 million tons, the upward space is limited, and there is an expectation of a peak and decline in a few weeks, which will put pressure on ferroalloy demand again [3] - Despite a significant reduction in MnSi production, the factory inventory is still increasing, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market is relatively large, almost doubling compared to the same period last year, which also restricts the upward space [3] Trading Strategy - The market sentiment has eased, and manganese ore may drive MnSi to continue to rebound, but it is expected to peak and decline later. In the short term, use range trading, sell high after the rebound, and buy low when it falls to a low level. Pay attention to the support at 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton and the pressure at 5,960 - 5,980 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of MnSi call options was 114,839, an increase of 33,431, and the trading volume of put options was 61,613, an increase of 17,633. The trading volume PCR was 0.54 [40] Group 4: Ferrosilicon (FeSi) Market Logic - The Sino-US statement exceeded expectations, with a significant reduction in tariffs, and the warming macro sentiment drove commodities up. However, the black metal sector still faces pressure after the rebound, and it is only a rebound, not a reversal [4] - Currently, the main contract of FeSi has switched to 07. Due to the premium of the far-month contract, the main contract has a larger increase, but its cost may continue to decline, so its later decline may be greater than that of MnSi [4] - After the production reduction of ferroalloy plants, the output has decreased, and the factory inventory of FeSi has started to decline, but the inventory on the futures market has increased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is still relatively high [4] - The daily hot metal production is 2.45 million tons, with limited upward space and weak sustainability. There is an expectation of a decline in a few weeks. Once the hot metal weakens, the cost may drive the FeSi price to continue to decline [4] Trading Strategy - Although the supply of FeSi has shrunk, the demand increase is limited. The short-term rebound cannot change the overall pattern. Pay attention to the support at around 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton and the pressure at around 5,700 - 5,720 yuan/ton [5] Option Strategy - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of FeSi call options was 83,349, an increase of 54,852, and the trading volume of put options was 35,812, an increase of 17,007. The trading volume PCR was 0.43 [44] Group 5: Ferroalloy Fundamentals Weekly Production and Demand - The report shows charts of weekly production, demand, and hot metal production for MnSi and FeSi [15][17][19] Inventory - The report presents charts of inventory and inventory days for MnSi and FeSi [21][24][27] Production Costs - The report provides charts of spot production costs and profits for MnSi and FeSi, as well as the average price of semi-coke in Ningxia and the market price of chemical coke in Shanxi [29][34][39]