恒力期货5.13见分晓

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - LPG: The supply from the US is expected to decrease in mid - late May as the tariff grace period for "in - transit goods" ends, while the Middle East will maintain high output. China's demand may decline due to high tariffs, and India's demand is expected to increase. The EIA inventory has risen, and the price shows a pattern of FEI with butane stronger than propane and May CP with propane stronger than butane. After May 13th, the US exports to China may significantly decrease, and the future situation in Japan and India needs further attention [10]. - Methanol: The supply, including domestic production, imports, and traditional downstream, is under pressure. The demand from downstream and olefins is weakening. The inventory situation shows that the support of low inventory for the basis is weakening. The price structure is weak, and the overall pattern of methanol is bearish. It is recommended to short on rebounds, and the price above 2300 points in the long - term is under pressure [56]. - Polyolefins: The supply of PP and PE has support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, but the demand is weakening as it enters the off - season. The inventory, cost, and price structure show certain characteristics. Affected by oil prices and tariff policies, the market sentiment is poor, and the polyolefin market is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [124]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LPG - Supply - US: The "in - transit goods" tariff exemption is about to end, and the output will gradually decrease in mid - late May, with the export focus shifting to other regions [10][14]. - Middle East: It is expected to maintain a strong output pattern to China and India in May [10][22]. - Demand - Asia: South Korea's demand is poor, and Japan will receive a large amount of US LPG in May [29]. - China and India: The arrival volume of US LPG will decrease in mid - late May, and India is turning to the US to purchase cheaper propane [35]. - Inventory: As of the week of May 2, the US propane and propylene inventory level has risen for the third consecutive week, and the production has slightly decreased but is still higher than the same period in previous years [10]. - Price and Structure - Price: As of May 8, FEI propane prices were stable, and butane prices were relatively strong. The May CP price of propane decreased by 5 dollars/ton, and butane decreased by 15 dollars/ton [10]. - Structure: The FEI - MOPJ spread widened, and the CP propylene - butane spread widened, reflecting China's attempt to find alternative supplies [10]. Methanol - Supply - Domestic: Short - term maintenance is rare, and the high - level supply pressure will be maintained. The weekly average output in late May is expected to slightly decrease to the range of 95 - 100 tons [56]. - Import: The arrival is increasing, and the pressure of import recovery will gradually appear in May. The overseas overall start - up has slightly declined [56]. - Traditional: The start - up of formaldehyde and acetic acid is at a high level, but the start - up of MTBE continues to decline [56]. - Demand - Downstream: The olefin load has decreased due to coal - chemical maintenance. As of May 8, the MTO start - up rate was 75.99% (- 2.08%) [56]. - Inland: The inland market has entered the off - season with low inventory [56]. - Inventory - Inland: As of May 7, the sample inventory of inland production enterprises was 30.39 tons (+ 2.06), and the pending orders were 23.78 tons (- 1.19) [56]. - Port: As of May 9, the total inventory was 61.9 tons (+ 0.1), and the negotiable inventory was 21.2 tons (- 1.2). The support of low inventory for the basis is weakening [56]. - Price and Structure - Basis and Spread: The near - end basis in East China is around 09 + 150/160, and the spread MA9 - 1 = - 63 ( + 2 compared with before the holiday) [56]. - PP - 3MA: As of May 9, 09MTO = 286 ( + 6 compared with before the holiday), and the spread trend is difficult to predict [56]. Polyolefins - Supply: The start - up rates of PP and PE are 80.2% (+ 3.9%) and 79.2% (- 1.95%) respectively as of May 8. There is support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, and attention should be paid to the PDH start - up and the impact of tariff policies on PE imports from the US [124]. - Demand: The start - up of PP downstream industries has seasonally declined, and the start - up of PE downstream industries has also weakened, with the industry entering the off - season [124]. - Inventory: As of May 9, the inventory of the two major oil companies was 79 tons (- 1.5), and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion speed after the holiday [124]. - Cost: The oil price performance is poor, and the support for polyolefin valuation is limited [124]. - Price and Structure - Basis and Spread: The PP9 - 1 = 81 yuan/ton ( + 23 compared with before the holiday), and L9 - 1 = 65 yuan/ton ( + 4 compared with before the holiday) [124]. - PP - L: As of May 9, 09PP - L = - 9 yuan/ton ( + 33 compared with before the holiday), and the spread is dominated by the difference in the fluctuation range of the two varieties [124].