美联储5月会议点评：两难之中静观其变

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, consistent with market expectations[2] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction pace remains unchanged, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties[2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation, with rising inflation and unemployment risks highlighted by the Fed[3] - Recent surveys indicate a significant decline in the U.S. PMI new orders index, while price indices continue to rise, reflecting stagflation expectations[9] Group 3: Future Projections - The Fed is expected to lower interest rates 3-4 times in the second half of the year due to more pronounced economic downturn pressures compared to inflation[4] - Financial markets may compel the Fed to adopt a more accommodative stance if trade negotiations falter or economic fundamentals deteriorate rapidly[14] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include a stalemate in U.S. tariff negotiations, rapid inflation increases, and worse-than-expected economic downturns[6]