YANGYUAN(SH:603156) Huaxin Securities·2025-05-13 02:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit release for the year, although Q1 performance faced short-term pressure [5] - Cost optimization has effectively improved profit margins, with a notable increase in net profit margin for the year [5] - The walnut milk business has improved profitability, while functional beverages have shown strong performance [6] - The company is expanding its market presence through a comprehensive channel strategy, particularly in the North China region [7][8] - Future earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.05, 1.13, and 1.23 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 22, and 20 times [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 60.58 billion yuan and 17.22 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2% and +17% [5] - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit were 18.60 billion yuan and 6.42 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -20% and -27% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 46.53% and 28.43%, showing increases of 0.8 and 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] Business Segments - Revenue from walnut milk and functional beverages in 2024 was 53.73 billion yuan and 6.49 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6% and +45% [6] - The walnut milk segment's gross margin improved to 48.44%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [6] Market Strategy - Direct sales and distribution revenue in 2024 were 2.94 billion yuan and 57.29 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +17% and -3% [7] - E-commerce sales reached 1.95 billion yuan, marking a 54% increase [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to continue channel expansion for walnut milk products and maintain growth in functional beverages, despite short-term pressures from overall consumption and investment losses [9] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 60.58 billion yuan, with a decline of 1.7% year-on-year [11]