Group 1: US Economic Impact - The US-China trade talks are progressing positively, leading to an improved economic outlook for the US[3] - The trade negotiations have shifted the US economic forecast from a "pessimistic scenario" to a "neutral scenario," reducing recession risks[3] - In the neutral scenario, the tariff policy is expected to have a maximum drag of 1.5 percentage points on US GDP growth by Q4 2025, decreasing to 0.4 percentage points by Q4 2026[4] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The US CPI is projected to rise significantly, reaching 3.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, before cooling down to below 3% by Q3 2026[11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, likely delaying any monetary policy changes until September 2025[12] Group 3: China Economic Impact - The probability of China achieving its 5.0% growth target has increased due to the easing of trade tensions[19] - In a non-extreme but pessimistic scenario, a 50% drop in exports to the US could lead to a 1.5 percentage point decline in China's GDP growth[16] - The Chinese government has expanded its fiscal deficit by 2.4 trillion yuan to counter potential export declines, which is approximately 0.8% of the 2024 GDP[16] Group 4: Trade Relations - The US will suspend 24% of the 34% tariffs imposed on China for 90 days, while China will also suspend a similar portion of its tariffs[2] - The joint statement from the US and China indicates a strong willingness to find common ground and avoid extreme scenarios in trade relations[15]
中美经贸会谈联合声明解读：中美积极寻找共识，合作明显改善两国经济前景
Guoxin Securities·2025-05-13 02:55