Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 124,150 yuan/ton and closed at 126,130 yuan/ton, a 2.00% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 235,469 lots, and the open interest was 67,717 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel jumped higher in the night session on Friday, then oscillated in a range after surging to near the previous high. On Monday, it rose in the morning session, faced resistance, and then oscillated downward, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly [2]. - The news of the Philippine nickel ore export ban on Friday afternoon affected market sentiment. Although the bill will take effect five years after being signed into law, it has no substantial impact in the near term. The shortage of nickel ore supply persists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at +26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by $0.65 - 1, with the overall price rising slightly and the ore - end price remaining firm [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel rose by about 2,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were correspondingly adjusted. The nickel price rebounded significantly during the day, and downstream buyers showed strong hesitation due to high prices. The overall spot trading volume of refined nickel was average, and most spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,222 (-204.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 197,754 (84) tons [2]. Strategy - Affected by the news of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and the tariff adjustment on Monday, the nickel price rebounded significantly. However, the overall supply of nickel elements is in excess, and there is significant upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range [3]. - Inter - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,765 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 116,932 lots, and the open interest was 116,190 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and rose in the night session on Friday and continued to rise in the day session on Monday, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [4]. - On May 12, the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released. The US promised to cancel the 91% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods under Executive Order No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Chinese goods under Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Among them, 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained. This tariff adjustment has no impact on stainless steel and all stainless - steel products, mainly affecting some downstream products that use stainless steel [4]. - The US imposes a 45% import tariff on stainless steel products (excluding pipes, flanges, and pipe fittings) and tableware and kitchenware imported from China, a 70% import tariff on stainless - steel sinks and washbasins, machine endless belts, other woven fabrics, pipes, flanges, and pipe fittings, and a minimum 30% import tariff on other products (partially using stainless steel) before July 2025 [5]. - The shortage of nickel ore supply persists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at +26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by $0.65 - 1, with the overall price rising slightly and the ore - end price remaining firm. In the spot market, the stainless - steel market was strong, market confidence recovered, and the price was raised several times. Some traders had low inventories, and some merchants increased their replenishment efforts due to bullish expectations, resulting in active market trading. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 350 - 500 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 942.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - Affected by the Philippine nickel ore export ban and the tariff adjustment on Monday, the stainless - steel price rebounded significantly. However, the overall supply of stainless steel is in excess, and there is significant upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. - Unilateral: Neutral [6]. - Inter - period: None [6]. - Cross - variety: None [6]. - Spot - futures: None [6]. - Options: None [6].
新能源及有色金属日报:受禁矿消息与关税调整影响,镍价大幅反弹-20250513
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-13 03:02