USDA发布月度报告，油脂震荡运行-20250513

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA released its May report, with no adjustment to South American production and the US soybean yield maintained at 52.5 bushels per acre as in the February Outlook Forum, resulting in no significant change in the supply pattern [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,024.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 138 yuan or 1.75% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,814.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 34.00 yuan or 0.44% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,378.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 23.00 yuan or 0.25% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of P09 + 506.00, a环比 decrease of 128.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,110.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.37%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 296.00, a环比 decrease of 64.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 152.00, a环比 decrease of 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from May 1 - 10 were 215,228 tons, a 1.9% increase from the 211,252 tons exported in the same period last month [2] US Soybean and Corn Information - In May, the expected US soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is 4.34 billion bushels, with a market expectation of 4.338 billion bushels; the expected ending stocks are 295 million bushels, with a market expectation of 362 million bushels; the expected yield is 52.5 bushels per acre, in line with market expectations [2] - As of the week ending May 11, the US soybean planting rate was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, compared to 30% the previous week, 34% last year, and a five - year average of 37% [2] - The US corn planting rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared to 40% the previous week, 47% last year, and a five - year average of 56% [2] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - Global soybean exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase by 4% to 188.4 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season [2] - Exports from major South American soybean - producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) are expected to increase by 8.5 million tons, offsetting the decline in US exports [2] - Argentina's soybean imports are expected to increase due to increased supply from neighboring countries, and import demand in countries such as China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria has also risen [2] - China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to be 112 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the revised 2024/25 season expectation [2] - Global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million tons, mainly due to increased stocks in Brazil and Argentina, partially offset by the decline in US stocks [2] South American Soybean Production Forecast - The USDA maintained its forecast for Argentina's 2024/2025 soybean production at 49 million tons, while the market expected 49.25 million tons [2] - The USDA maintained its forecast for Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production at 169 million tons, while the market expected 169.17 million tons [2]