液化石油气日报：中美关税下调，原料担忧或有所缓解-20250513

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The positive progress of the tariff negotiation has improved the macro sentiment, and the concern about raw materials is expected to be marginally alleviated after the import cost drops. However, the weak profit of PDH has not been completely reversed, and the chemical demand is difficult to rebound significantly [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 12, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4,650 - 4,890 yuan; Northeast market 4,480 - 4,840 yuan; North China market 4,750 - 4,905 yuan; East China market 4,900 - 5,050 yuan; Yangtze River market 5,020 - 5,280 yuan; Northwest market 4,650 - 4,785 yuan; South China market 4,950 - 5,080 yuan [1] - In the first half of June 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China and South China decreased. The CIF price of propane in East China was 635 US dollars/ton, down 13 US dollars/ton, and the butane was 581 US dollars/ton, down 13 US dollars/ton. In South China, the propane was 635 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton, and the butane was 581 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars/ton [1] - In the spot market, prices in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River regions mainly declined yesterday, while other regions remained stable. The overall atmosphere was mediocre, and downstream buyers entered the market cautiously [1] - In terms of supply, the international supply pattern has been re - structured. US shipments have decreased, Middle East shipments have increased, and domestic refinery supply is at a medium level but is expected to increase. The overall supply is sufficient, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory [1] - In terms of demand, the combustion demand has entered the off - season, and the chemical demand is under further downward pressure due to profit issues. As of last week, the PDH operating rate dropped to about 59% [1] - After the market closed yesterday, China and the US jointly announced a reduction in tariffs. China's additional tariffs on the US will be temporarily reduced to 10% this year, and 24% of the tariffs will be suspended within 90 days, pending further negotiation progress [1] Strategy - Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]