Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The USDA monthly report on soybeans is slightly bullish, with a small expected decrease in the new US soybean crop production in the 25/26 season, stable export and domestic consumption estimates. However, in the short - term, both US and domestic soybean supplies are expected to be large, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal are likely to be range - bound. [2][5] - For oils, the mid - term has downward pressure due to the downward movement of the crude oil center and the recovery of palm oil production. But the upcoming release of new RVO rules in the US may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short - term. [12] - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. In the domestic market, the current production and sales situation is good, but as the price of the outer market falls and the import profit window re - opens, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to weaken. [13][14] - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks has boosted the short - term cotton price. The domestic cotton spinning industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. [16][17] - The supply pressure of eggs is relatively large, and the mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies before the low price significantly forces the culling of old chickens. [21] - For live pigs, the short - term spot price fluctuates little, and the futures price has limited downward space in the discount pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term sentiment. [23] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - Overnight US soybeans closed higher due to the easing sentiment of the trade war. The USDA monthly report estimates a small decrease in the new US soybean crop production in the 25/26 season, flat crush volume, a small decline in exports, and a small reduction in inventory year - on - year. [2] - The US soybean planting progress has reached 48% as of last week, and the southern US soybean producing areas will have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with sporadic rainfall in the central region, so the planting progress is expected to be normal. [3] - The Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress is close to 60%, and the selling pressure may gradually decrease. The Brazilian soybean premium has dropped again under the current Sino - US easing situation. [3] - According to MYSTEEL estimates, the expected soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The oil mills are expected to crush 1.9085 million tons of soybeans this week, compared with 1.846 million tons last week. There is a strong trend of inventory accumulation for soybean meal and soybeans in the next three months in China. [2] Trading Strategy - The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Considering the low valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal, there is some room for rebound due to possible weather, trade easing, and US biodiesel policy expectations. In the short - term, they are expected to be range - bound, and further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production. [5] Oils Important Information - ITS and AMSPEC estimate that the exports of Malaysian palm oil increased by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, 13.5% - 17% in the first 15 days, 11.9% in the first 20 days, 14.75% in the first 25 days, and 3.6% - 5.1% in the first 30 days. The high - frequency data from SPPOMA shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.97% in the first 15 days of April and 9.11% in the first 20 days. UOB and MPOA estimate an increase of more than 16% in the first 20 days and 17.03% in the first 30 days. [6] - The SPPOMA data shows that from May 1 - 5, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 61.58%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.59%, and the production increased by 60.17%. The ITS data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 10 was 293,991 tons, a 9% decrease compared with the same period last month. [6] - The industry association in the US soybean oil sector requests a significant increase in RVO, which is beneficial to the demand for US soybean oil and boosts its valuation. The domestic spot basis is fluctuating. [11] Trading Strategy - The mid - term of oils has downward pressure due to the downward movement of the crude oil center and the obvious recovery of palm oil production. But the upcoming release of new RVO rules in the US may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short - term, so it may be range - bound or slightly bullish. [12] Sugar Important Information - On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar September contract was 5,885 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in various regions also increased. [13] - In April, the single - month sugar sales in Guangxi were 657,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8,800 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 63.96%, a year - on - year increase of 6.03 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 2.3297 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 270,700 tons. In Yunnan, the single - month sugar sales in April were 280,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90,900 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 55.71%, a year - on - year increase of 9.18 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 1.047 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34,700 tons. [13] Trading Strategy - The large - scale delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil have alleviated the supply shortage. The price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. In the domestic market, the current production and sales situation is good, but as the outer - market price falls and the import profit window re - opens, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to weaken. [14] Cotton Important Information - On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded significantly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton September contract was 13,240 yuan/ton, a 2.24% increase from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also increased. [16] - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks has led to a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. [16] Trading Strategy - From a macro perspective, the progress in Sino - US talks has boosted the short - term cotton price. The domestic cotton spinning industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. [17] Eggs Spot Information - Most egg prices in the country rose yesterday, with a few remaining stable. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.17 yuan/jin. The supply increase is limited, the downstream digestion has improved, and most traders are more confident about the future market. It is expected that egg prices will mostly rise today, with a few remaining stable. [20] Trading Strategy - After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies before the low price significantly forces the culling of old chickens. [21] Live Pigs Spot Information - The domestic live pig prices were mainly stable yesterday, with some areas slightly weaker. The average price in Henan remained flat at 15.11 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 14.57 yuan/kg. The sales of live pigs are relatively slow, and it is difficult to raise prices, but the upstream is also reluctant to accept price cuts, and it is difficult for the slaughter end to force prices down. It is expected that live pig prices will be mainly stable today, with a few slightly decreasing. [22] Trading Strategy - The short - term spot price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the futures price has limited downward space in the discount pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term sentiment such as hoarding, secondary fattening, and stockpiling. [23]
五矿期货农产品早报-20250513
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-05-13 03:36