中美超预期达成关税共识，市场短期压力或将大幅释放

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpected consensus on tariff reduction between China and the US in the Geneva economic and trade talks is expected to boost the short - term sentiment of the domestic A - share market and industrial products in commodities, especially those close to the export end. However, there is a possibility that the US may take further actions after a 90 - day period [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Reaction - After the A - share market closed yesterday, the three major US stock indexes recorded their largest daily gains in a month, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 5.40%. The US dollar index and the offshore RMB increased, while US Treasury bonds and gold declined [7]. 2. Sector - Specific Analysis PTA - The unilateral trend is oscillating strongly. With the unexpected tariff reduction, the view on the monthly spread is revised, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be exited. PTA is in a situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to short the PTA processing fee at high prices, and the unilateral price is strongly affected by oil prices and is generally oscillating strongly [9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The unexpected good news of China - US tariffs drives the sentiment - based repair of the market. It is advisable to enter the 6 - 8 reverse spread and hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread lightly. The freight rate on the European line is not likely to increase significantly in late June, and there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August [10]. Styrene - Pure benzene is still in a weak trend, and in the short - term, it enters a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Styrene should be shorted at high prices, and the profit of styrene should be compressed. Attention should be paid to the downstream production cut and inventory accumulation in the second half of May and the process of the hidden inventory of styrene factories becoming explicit [13]. Cotton - Despite the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures due to the better - than - expected result of the China - US economic and trade talks, due to sufficient supply of old - crop cotton and expected increase in new - crop production, as well as the lack of short - term and long - term growth expectations for cotton demand, cotton futures lack a continuous upward driving force and are expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. 3. Individual Commodity Analysis Precious Metals - Gold: Affected by the progress in China - US trade, the trend intensity is - 1. - Silver: It is oscillating downwards, and the trend intensity is - 1 [20][24]. Base Metals - Copper: The strong spot price of LME copper supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating weakly, and the trend intensity is 0. Alumina is consolidating at a low level, and the trend intensity is 0 [29]. - Zinc: There is inventory accumulation in the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to tariff disturbances. The trend intensity is - 1 [32]. - Lead: It has weak supply and demand and is adjusting within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a narrow range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [38]. - Nickel: The news affects the sentiment, but the fundamentals change little. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel has a marginal increase in social inventory, and the disk is supported by cost expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [42]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Although the tariff impact is mitigated, the export profit is still in the red. The trend intensity is 0 [47]. - Industrial Silicon: The disk is expected to open high and go low. The trend intensity is - 1. - Polysilicon: The news of production cuts is fermenting, and the disk is running strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [50]. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. - Rebar: The macro - sentiment boosts it, and it rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - sentiment boosts it, and it rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1 [58]. - Ferrosilicon: The main production areas have announced maintenance plans, and it is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1. - Silicomanganese: The port quotation has a strong willingness to increase, and it is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [61]. - Coke: The sentiment is being repaired, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0. - Coking Coal: The sentiment is being repaired, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0 [66]. - Steam Coal: The coal mine inventory is increasing, and it is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [71]. Others - Logs: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating repeatedly [74].