有色金属日报-20250513

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global trade tension has further eased, and metal prices are gradually returning to the fundamental logic. Different metals have different trends due to their own supply - demand relationships and external factors [1][2][3][5][6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, nickel prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and tin prices are expected to have increased volatility [1][2][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Metals - Copper: As of May 12, the Shanghai copper main contract 06 rose 0.77% to 78,260 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US trade agreement, the copper price returned to the fundamental logic. With the TC of copper concentrate decreasing, the smelting output may decline, and the consumption is stable but affected by the high monthly spread. It is recommended to trade cautiously in the range of 74,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum: As of May 12, the Shanghai aluminum main contract 06 rose 1.66% to 19,910 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is increasing and the price is falling. The alumina production capacity is in a state of complex change, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's starting rate has increased slightly, but there is a weakening expectation. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be strong [2]. - Nickel: As of May 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract 06 rose 2% to 126,130 yuan/ton. The inflation in the US has cooled down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI has declined. The nickel supply is in an over - supply situation, and it is expected to be weak and volatile [3][5]. - Tin: As of May 12, the Shanghai tin main contract 06 rose 0.89% to 263,200 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin production may decrease, and the supply of tin ore is tight. With the expected resumption of production in the mining end, the price volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: The domestic spot copper price rose, but the spot market transaction was light, with downstream enterprises maintaining rigid demand [7]. - Aluminum: The spot aluminum market stabilized from a weak state. The holders were willing to ship, and the downstream rigid demand supported the transaction. The afternoon trading became lighter [8]. - Alumina: The spot price of alumina was stable with a small increase, but the trading volume was weak [9]. - Zinc: The spot zinc market was affected by shipment pressure and imported goods, with high spot premiums but light trading [10][11]. - Lead: The spot lead market was mainly for rigid demand from downstream merchants, and the trading activity needed to be improved [12][13]. - Nickel: As the nickel price rebounded to a high level, the spot market was cautious and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high [14]. - Tin: In the spot tin market, some merchants were waiting and watching, and the overall transaction was weak [15]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE: The copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 919 tons to 20,084 tons; the aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,899 tons to 62,114 tons; the zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,903 tons; the lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 40,961 tons; the nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 23,222 tons; the tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 8,331 tons [17]. - LME: The copper inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 190,750 tons; the tin inventory increased by 85 tons to 2,790 tons; the lead inventory decreased by 1,625 tons to 251,800 tons; the zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 169,850 tons; the aluminum inventory decreased by 2,025 tons to 401,525 tons; the nickel inventory increased by 84 tons to 197,754 tons [17].