中辉期货日刊-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Short - term bullish due to improved macro - environment and peak - season expectations, but upside limited [1][2][3] - LPG: Weakening due to reduced oil - price rebound momentum and lower import costs [1][5][6] - L: Sideways with weak supply and demand, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][8][10] - PP: Sideways with short - term market - sentiment - driven fluctuations, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][11][13] - PVC: Sideways with weak fundamentals, short - term wait - and - see [1][14][16] - PX: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, but may correct [1][17][18] - PTA/PR: Bullish in the short - term with cost - driven fluctuations, may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [1][20][22] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, may correct [1][24][26] - Glass: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways with macro - fundamental game [1][28][29] - Soda ash: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways [1][30] - Methanol: Bearish with a loose supply - demand pattern and weak cost support, bearish on rallies [1][32] - Urea: Bullish in the short - term with export - policy support, but watch for short - selling opportunities [1] - Asphalt: Bullish in the short - term with oil - price rebound and increased downstream开工率, but high valuation [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.88%, Brent up 1.64%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - Basic Logic: OPEC+增产利空 released, Sino - US trade progress and peak - season expectations boost prices, but OPEC+扩产 limits upside. Supply may decrease in Iraq and CPC exports. Demand is expected to increase globally but decline in India. US commercial crude inventory decreased while strategic reserve increased [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Long - term price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, sell bull - spread options. SC focus range is [475 - 495] [4] LPG - Market Review: On May 12, PG main contract closed at 4362 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - Basic Logic: Oil - price rebound weakens, import costs drop, and fundamentals are bearish with increased inventory and decreased PDH开工率 [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Long - term bearish as it follows oil prices. Short - term, short with a light position. PG focus range is [4300 - 4350] [7] L - Market Review: L09 main contract rose 1.6%. L主力持仓量 decreased slightly, and L仓单量 remained unchanged [9] - Basic Logic: New capacity has been put into operation, and import windows are mostly closed. Demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. Sino - US trade progress improves sentiment, but supply - demand is weak and inventory accumulates. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [10] - Strategy Recommendation: Bearish on rallies. L focus range is [7080 - 7180] [10] PP - Market Review: PP09 main contract fell 0.3%. PP主力持仓量 increased, and PP仓单量 decreased slightly [12] - Basic Logic: A new PP device has been put into operation, and future PDH device commissioning is to be watched. Tariff easing may increase PDH开工率, but it's the demand off - season. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Bearish on rallies. PP focus range is [7000 - 7080] [13] PVC - Market Review: V09 main contract fell 0.7%. PVC仓单 increased [15] - Basic Logic: A new device was put into operation in January. Supply is high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Exports may weaken. Registration extension leads to increased仓单, and there is no upward drive. Watch for spring - maintenance and macro - policy changes [16] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term participation. V focus range is [4700 - 4830] [16] PX - Market Review: On May 9, PX spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged. PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [17] - Basic Logic: PX devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have various maintenance and restart situations. Demand from PTA devices is weak. Inventory is high but improving. May fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations [18] - Strategy Recommendation: PX focus range is [6620, 6750] [19] PTA - Market Review: On May 9, PTA spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [20][21] - Basic Logic: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases. Short - term, it follows cost fluctuations and is bullish, but may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [22] - Strategy Recommendation: TA focus range is [4680, 4780] [23] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On May 9, ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [24][25] - Basic Logic: Device maintenance eases supply pressure. Import is higher than expected. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases slightly. Short - term, it is bullish but may correct [26] - Strategy Recommendation: EG focus range is [4280, 4400] [27] Glass - Market Review: Spot prices decreased, and the decline of the futures market slowed. Shahe basis widened, and仓单 increased [28] - Basic Logic: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The market faces supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and inventory accumulation. Price decline is limited, but recovery depends on policy effects and supply reduction [29] - Strategy Recommendation: FG focus range is [1020, 1060]. Watch the 5 - day moving average. Exit short positions if it breaks through [29] Soda Ash - Market Review: Heavy - soda spot prices increased, and the futures market fluctuated. Basis fluctuated slightly, and仓单 and effective forecasts decreased [30] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure eases slightly due to device maintenance, but supply is still excessive as开工率 remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. Cost center moves down [30] - Strategy Recommendation: SA focus range is [1300, 1350] [31] Methanol - Market Review: On May 9, methanol spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Methanol main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [32] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices restart and imports are expected. Demand is weak, with MTO开工率 at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and cost support is weak [32] - Strategy Recommendation: MA focus range is [2250, 2310] [33]