豆粕日报：短期偏空震荡-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall: Different commodities show diverse trends. Some are bearish in the short - term, some are experiencing rebounds, and others are in a state of shock - like trends. - Commodity - specific: - Bean Meal: Short - term bearish shock, with supply increasing and limited impact from Sino - US trade on prices [1][3][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term decline trend slows, with long - term supply pressure easing [1][5][6]. - Palm Oil: Short - term rebound, affected by domestic inventory and international market conditions [1][7][8]. - Cotton: Shock - like and slightly stronger, driven by Sino - US trade and affected by supply and demand [1][9][10]. - Red Dates: Shock - like and slightly stronger, supported by pre - festival stocking [1][13][14]. - Live Pigs: Under pressure and in shock, with supply pressure expected to dominate in the second half of 2025 [1][15][17]. 3. Summary According to Commodity Categories Bean Meal - Market Situation: Futures price closed at 2908 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; spot price dropped 2.55% to 3227.71 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Supply - side: South American soybean production is determined, US soybean planting starts. In China, monthly imports from May to July are estimated to be over 10 million tons, and port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks [1][3]. - Demand - side: Pre - holiday stocking demand keeps the supply tight around May Day, but supply is increasing [1]. - Price Trend: Short - term bearish, with the short - term bearish pattern still dominant, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting weather and Sino - US relations [1][3][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: Inventory of oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal has increased month - on - month, but imports from May to July are expected to decline significantly year - on - year [1][5]. - Supply - side: Long - term supply pressure eases due to low import expectations [1][5]. - Price Trend: Short - term decline trend slows, with the short - term bearish pattern still dominant, and attention should be paid to Canadian rapeseed exports and Sino - US trade progress [1][5]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: Futures price closed at 8024 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from the previous day; domestic commercial inventory decreased by 5.28% week - on - week [7][8]. - Supply - side: Low domestic inventory and imports, but Southeast Asian palm oil is in a stocking cycle [1][8]. - Demand - side: India's expected increase in imports in May boosts market sentiment, but Malaysia's exports in the first ten days of this month decreased year - on - year [1][8]. - Price Trend: Short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to gap resistance [1][7][8]. Cotton - Market Situation: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract CF2509 increased by 2.24%, and ICE US cotton rose 0.04%; domestic spot increased by 0.46% [9][10]. - Supply - side: US cotton soil moisture improves, and China's new - season production is expected to be high [10][11]. - Demand - side: Entering the off - season, orders and operating rates decline, and Sino - US trade tariffs affect demand [11][12]. - Price Trend: Shock - like and slightly stronger, with support below 13,000 yuan, and caution is needed when chasing up [1][9][12]. Red Dates - Market Situation: The main contract CJ2509 increased by 0.50%, and inventory of 36 sample enterprises increased by 175 tons [13][14]. - Supply - side: New - season jujubes have not blossomed, and old - crop inventory is high [14]. - Demand - side: Pre - festival stocking increases transactions, but overall demand is weakening [14]. - Price Trend: Shock - like and slightly stronger, with short - term support strengthening [1][13][14]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: The main contract Lh2509 decreased by 0.22%, and domestic spot price dropped 0.07% [15][16]. - Supply - side: Short - term supply growth slows, but medium - term supply may increase, and large - weight pig supply pressure persists [16][17]. - Demand - side: Consumption lacks continuous growth momentum [17]. - Price Trend: Under pressure and in shock, and contracts 07 and 09 should be sold on rallies [1][15][17].