中辉有色观点-20250513

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term tariff negotiation results lead to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment, but in the long run, the re - balance of global asset allocation and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing will support gold to continue attracting incremental funds, and the bull market is not over. Different metal varieties have different trends and investment strategies [1][3] - For gold, it is in high - level adjustment in the short - term, and has long - term strategic allocation value. For silver, it is in wide - range adjustment. For copper, it is advisable to buy on dips. For zinc, it is recommended to sell on rallies. For lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel, their prices are expected to rebound and then fall. For industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, they are in low - level oscillations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Situation: Due to the better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiation, gold has a large - scale adjustment. Gold prices in both SHFE and COMEX have declined, and the gold - silver ratio has also decreased. The dollar index has risen, and the real yield of US Treasury bonds has increased [2] - Core Logic: Short - term factors include the better - than - expected Sino - US trade negotiation results, postponed interest - rate cut expectations, and record - high US customs tariff revenues. Long - term factors are the re - balance of global asset allocation and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term gold may continue to adjust, and pay attention to the performance around 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization before entering the market. Silver may continue to oscillate in the range of [8020, 8350] [3] Copper - Market Situation: With the rise of the dollar index, copper prices rise first and then fall. The prices of SHFE copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have all declined slightly [5][6] - Core Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and the processing fee of copper concentrate hits a new low. The inventory outside the US is decreasing, and there is a risk of soft squeeze in the domestic market [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold existing long positions, and some can take profits on rallies. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term range of SHFE copper is [77500, 78500], and that of LME copper is [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - Market Situation: Zinc prices rise first and then fall, showing a weak and oscillating trend. The prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc have declined slightly [8][9] - Core Logic: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose in 2025, but the export of a certain mine may be postponed. The domestic production of zinc ingots in April has increased, while the downstream demand is weakening [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Sell on rallies in the short - term. In the long - term, take the opportunity to go short when the price rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [22000, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2620, 2680] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - Market Situation: Aluminum prices stabilize and rise, and alumina rebounds from a low level. The prices of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have increased [11] - Core Logic: The overseas trade environment eases. The domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the cost support is weakening [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Go short - term long on SHFE aluminum on dips and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19500 - 20100]. Alumina is expected to operate in a weak range [12] Nickel - Market Situation: Nickel prices rebound and then fall, and stainless steel follows the rebound trend. The prices of LME nickel, SHFE nickel, and stainless steel futures have increased [13] - Core Logic: The increase in Indonesia's nickel - mine royalty and the news of the Philippines' ore - ban policy support the nickel price. The domestic refined nickel production has increased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the terminal consumption is not optimistic [14] - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [122000 - 129000] [14] Lithium Carbonate - Market Situation: The main contract LC2507 first hits a new low and then rebounds. The prices of some futures contracts and spot prices have changed slightly [15] - Core Logic: The market is facing the dual dilemmas of cost collapse and oversupply. The production cost of overseas mines has decreased, the supply has not seen large - scale and continuous production cuts, and the demand in the second quarter is average [16] - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to rebound in the low - level range of [63300 - 65200] [16]