周度经济观察：如何理解联合声明的含义-20250513

Economic Outlook - The joint statement indicates that the most pessimistic expectations for the macro economy are passing, with effective control over tail risks of economic slowdown[2] - The economy is likely to show a V-shaped recovery this year, with a rebound expected in the second half[2] Trade and Tariffs - The US-China trade talks resulted in a 90-day suspension of most tariff increases, maintaining US tariffs on China at approximately 42%[4] - April exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, but this was less than market expectations, supported by a "rush to re-export" during the tariff suspension period[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing products, such as ships and automobiles, showed strong growth, with ship exports increasing by 67.8% in April[7] - Exports to the US fell sharply, with a year-on-year decline from 9.1% in March to -21.0% in April, while exports to ASEAN and India grew significantly[8] Inflation and Prices - April's PPI was -2.7% year-on-year, with significant declines in coal and oil prices contributing to this[11] - April's CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, with food prices, particularly beef and seafood, showing strong performance[13] Market Trends - The equity market has been on an upward trend, driven by factors such as military performance in recent conflicts and timely monetary policy responses[16] - The market's focus is shifting back to domestic economic fundamentals, with signs of recovery in consumption and real estate[18]