中美和谈情绪推动价格上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [4] - Alumina: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of Sino-US trade talks has pushed up the prices of aluminum and alumina. However, the actual consumption in the spot market has not been affected by tariffs, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has continued to decline. The sustainability of consumption is controversial in May. For alumina, the supply is likely to increase month-on-month in May, and the expectation of oversupply remains unchanged [1][3] Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On May 12, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 19,810 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was flat at 10 yuan/ton; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 19,810 yuan/ton, and the Central Plains A00 aluminum spot premium was flat at 0 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 19,760 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 aluminum spot premium fell 5 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On May 12, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 19,590 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 19,910 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton or 1.66% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 186,779 lots, an increase of 71,128 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 167,645 lots, a decrease of 14,093 lots from the previous trading day [1] Alumina Spot - On May 12, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,900 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,880 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 348 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On May 12, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,843 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 859,878 lots, a decrease of 110,097 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 272,614 lots, a decrease of 6,963 lots from the previous trading day [2] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 601,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 401,525 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous trading day [1] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks have led to a reduction in tariffs, which has pushed up market sentiment and prices. The actual consumption in the spot market has not been affected by tariffs, and the inventory has continued to decline. The sustainability of consumption is controversial in May. The aluminum rod production is still strong, while the production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils has weakened slightly month-on-month. It is expected that the de-stocking amplitude will slow down, and it may be difficult for aluminum prices to break through upwards without positive stimulus [3] Alumina - In the spot market, the price is rising slightly. The futures price is rising weakly. The cost is showing signs of collapse, and the alumina plants have rich production profits. The supply in May is likely to increase month-on-month, and the expectation of oversupply remains unchanged [3] Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral [4] Arbitrage - Shanghai Aluminum positive spread arbitrage [5]