银河证券每日晨报-20250513

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The joint statement from the US-China Geneva trade talks indicates a phased achievement in trade negotiations, with both sides agreeing to reduce tariffs by 115% over the next 90 days [2][3] - The statement reflects a return to normal trade negotiation tracks, highlighting the willingness of both parties to engage in discussions based on mutual benefits [2] Group 2: Export and Economic Growth - China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate, with a projected annual growth of 5.9% in 2024, despite a potential 3.6 percentage point drag from US tariffs [3] - The overall impact of exports on GDP is estimated to be a reduction of about 0.5 percentage points due to the tariffs imposed by the US [3] Group 3: Policy Responses - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing employment and market expectations while accelerating the implementation of existing policies, including the issuance of government bonds [4] - The emphasis is on supporting key sectors, particularly technology and infrastructure, in response to external economic pressures [4] Group 4: Energy Sector Performance - The thermal power sector is experiencing profit growth due to declining coal prices, with net profits of 625.7 billion yuan in 2024, a 37.3% increase year-on-year [20] - The hydropower sector also shows strong performance, with net profits of 563.21 billion yuan in 2024, driven by favorable water conditions and reduced financial costs [21] - Nuclear power is facing short-term profit pressures due to tax payments but is expected to maintain long-term growth potential with new projects coming online [22] Group 5: New Energy Sector Transition - The new energy sector is transitioning to a phase of high-quality development, with a focus on efficiency and profitability, as indicated by the introduction of policy 136 [23][40] - The sector is expected to see a shift from rapid expansion to a more balanced approach, favoring companies with strong cost control and quality projects [25][40] Group 6: Military Industry Outlook - The military industry is projected to face a challenging year in 2024, with revenues expected to decline by 2.6%, but signs of recovery are anticipated in subsequent quarters [32] - The industry is benefiting from increased domestic demand and military trade opportunities, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions [35] Group 7: Computer and Technology Sector - The domestic technology sector is poised for growth due to the ongoing trend of domestic substitution and the emergence of new opportunities in the MCP (Multi-Cloud Platform) space [27][28] - Companies in the computing power supply chain and AI applications are highlighted as key areas for investment [30]