Guoxin Securities·2025-05-13 04:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][28]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant profit improvement in Q1 2025, with new orders steadily increasing. The net profit for 2024 is projected to decline by 17.7%, but Q1 2025 shows a 27% year-on-year growth [1][4][9]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with new orders exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% increase year-on-year, and a 36% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year [3][23][28]. - The company is anticipated to reach a peak in coal power and other industry deliveries in 2025, with a projected production capacity of 73 GW, up from 58.1 GW in 2024 [3][4][28]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 69.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, but the net profit was 2.92 billion yuan, down 17.7% [1][5][9]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 21.85 billion yuan, up 37% year-on-year and 52% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 53% year-on-year and 68% quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.55 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, while net profit was 1.15 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year and 288% quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 14.2%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining margins in thermal, gas, and wind power products [2][15]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 16.6%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 5.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery in profitability [2][15]. - The company recorded impairment losses of 1.294 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant portion occurring in Q4 [2][15]. Market Position and Orders - The company holds a market share of 41.6% in pumped storage and 45% in conventional hydropower, maintaining a leading position in the industry [3][24]. - New orders in 2024 reached 101.14 billion yuan, with a notable increase in clean and efficient energy equipment orders [3][23]. - In Q1 2025, new orders amounted to 35.88 billion yuan, a 36% increase year-on-year, with clean energy equipment orders growing by 44% [3][23]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 4.34 billion yuan, 5.52 billion yuan, and 6.09 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 48.5%, 27.2%, and 10.3% respectively [4][28]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.7 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4][28].