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申银万国期货早间策略-20250513
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-05-13 04:41
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the joint statement on China-US economic and trade high - level talks, along with favorable policies from the State Council Information Office, and the positive outcome of the China - US tariff negotiation, are short - term positive factors for the stock market. With the current low valuation levels of major Chinese indices, there is a high cost - effectiveness for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market. It is expected that the stock index will break through upwards, so futures should be treated as bullish, and a wide - straddle buying option strategy can be used for stock index options to capture the trend after the direction is chosen [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3885.00, 3853.00, 3786.60, and 3749.60 respectively, with increases of 45.80, 47.00, 45.00, and 44.40. The trading volumes were 31355.00, 61843.00, 13346.00, and 3543.00, and the open interest increased by 2092.00, 14106.00, 2998.00, and 1453.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads of the CSI 300 index were 1.19, 1.23, 1.20, and 1.20 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2703.80, 2686.60, 2653.20, and 2649.00, with increases of 20.00, 20.40, 21.20, and 22.20. The trading volumes were 13936.00, 31684.00, 5559.00, and 1311.00, and the open interest increased by 854.00, 7500.00, 1600.00, and 520.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads of the SSE 50 index were 0.75, 0.77, 0.81, and 0.85 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 5786.00, 5688.00, 5524.60, and 5417.80, with increases of 81.20, 82.80, 69.60, and 68.20. The trading volumes were 25583.00, 52449.00, 12705.00, and 5584.00. The open interest of the current - month contract decreased by 2319.00, while the others increased by 2505.00, 1668.00, and 1743.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads of the CSI 500 index were 1.42, 1.48, 1.28, and 1.27 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 6151.60, 6037.00, 5843.40, and 5702.20, with increases of 94.00, 93.00, 84.60, and 82.20. The trading volumes were 40716.00, 134023.00, 29274.00, and 8380.00. The open interest of the current - month contract decreased by 6527.00, while the others increased by 5031.00, 2040.00, and 1059.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads of the CSI 1000 index were 1.55, 1.56, 1.47, and 1.46 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 32.00, - 17.20, - 98.00, and - 114.60 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 31.60, - 17.40, - 97.60, and - 111.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 3846.16, 2684.01, 5793.67, and 6082.08, with price - to - price spreads of - 0.17, 0.17, 1.26, and - 1.23 respectively. The trading volumes (in billion lots) were 119.39, 32.78, 135.82, and 189.22, and the total trading amounts (in billion yuan) were 2166.98, 603.26, 1994.27, and 2428.10 [1] - Industry Indexes: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the price - to - price spreads of energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications services, and public utilities were 0.32%, - 0.45%, - 0.17%, 0.06%, 0.27%, 0.18%, 0.37%, - 1.80%, - 0.93%, and 0.59% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index were - 5.61, - 37.61, - 104.01, and - 141.01, compared to the previous two - day values of - 5.96, - 37.56, - 102.56, and - 139.36 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts and the SSE 50 index were - 0.51, - 14.71, - 47.91, and - 51.91, compared to the previous two - day values of - 5.90, - 24.30, - 56.70, and - 59.70 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were - 19.32, - 116.92, - 265.92, and - 370.92, compared to the previous two - day values of - 21.81, - 113.81, - 258.61, and - 361.01 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were - 25.88, - 136.88, - 322.48, and - 461.28, compared to the previous two - day values of - 30.48, - 139.28, - 328.08, and - 465.88 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3342.00, 10126.83, 6294.71, and 2011.77, with price - to - price spreads of - 0.30%, - 0.69%, - 0.62%, and - 0.87% respectively [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 22867.74, 37503.33, 5659.91, and 23499.32, with price - to - price spreads of 0.40%, 1.56%, - 0.07%, and 0.63% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - China - US economic and trade high - level talks released a joint statement. The US will cancel 91% of the additional tariffs, and China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides will suspend the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and relevant counter - measures. A mechanism will be established for further consultations [2] - The Xinhua News Agency published a commentary, stating that rational expectations should be held for the China - US economic and trade talks, and the long - term, complex, and arduous nature of eliminating differences should be recognized [2] - The Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, held a round - table meeting with foreign - trade enterprises, indicating that the Ministry of Commerce will coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles to support foreign - trade enterprises [2] - The State Council Information Office released the first white paper on "China's National Security in the New Era" [2] 3.6 Industry Information - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million, with year - on - year increases of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. New - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million, with year - on - year increases of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. Automobile exports were 517,000, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. From January to April 2025, the production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time [2] - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications have exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications reached 3.225 million, with new - energy vehicles accounting for over 53% [2] - Ping An Trust plans to lower the threshold of insurance - trust products to below 1 million yuan, which would be the first in the trust industry [2]