光大期货能化商品日报-20250513

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Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity prices rebounded due to positive progress in tariff negotiations, but there is still supply pressure on oil prices, and caution is needed for oil price rebounds [1]. - For fuel oil, in the short - term, the absolute prices of FU and LU may remain stable, and one can consider a strategy to shrink the LU - FU spread later [2]. - The absolute price of asphalt may remain stable in the short - term, but its upward space may be limited [2]. - The polyester market is expected to be relatively strong, with PTA following the cost side and showing a strong - side shock, and ethylene glycol expected to see significant inventory reduction in May [2][3]. - The rubber market is in a state of shock, affected by the development of the automotive industry and tariff negotiations [3]. - The methanol market is in a state of shock, and prices may recover due to the results of Sino - US trade negotiations [5]. - The polyolefin market is expected to be relatively strong, and short - term prices will recover due to Sino - US negotiations and reduced tariffs [5]. - The PVC market is in a state of shock and is expected to perform weakly in the energy - chemical sector [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, WTI June contract rose $0.93 to $61.95 per barrel, a 1.52% increase; Brent July contract rose $1.05 to $64.96 per barrel, a 1.64% increase; SC2506 closed at 482 yuan per barrel, up 7.6 yuan per barrel, a 1.6% increase. Sino - US tariff negotiations made progress, and Iraq plans to reduce exports in May and June. The market is in a state of shock [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Monday, FU2507 rose 2.5% to 2996 yuan per ton, and LU2506 rose 1.56% to 3518 yuan per ton. Sino - US trade negotiations improved market sentiment. The market is in a state of shock [2]. - Asphalt: On Monday, BU2506 rose 1.55% to 3481 yuan per ton. Sino - US trade negotiations improved market sentiment. Supply is expected to increase, and demand in the north will increase slightly while that in the south is affected by rain. The market is in a state of shock [2]. - Polyester: TA509 rose 2.79% to 4710 yuan per ton, EG2509 rose 1.99% to 4302 yuan per ton, and PX futures rose 2.81% to 6654 yuan per ton. The market is expected to be relatively strong [2]. - Rubber: On Monday, RU2509 rose 405 yuan per ton to 15025 yuan per ton, NR rose 405 yuan per ton to 12820 yuan per ton, and BR rose 370 yuan per ton to 11820 yuan per ton. The market is in a state of shock [3]. - Methanol: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2422 yuan per ton. Supply is high, and demand has some uncertainties. The market is in a state of shock [5]. - Polyolefins: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7150 - 7300 yuan per ton. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and the market may have an intention to rush exports. The market is expected to be relatively strong [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Monday, the price in the East China market declined slightly. Supply is high, and demand is relatively stable but will enter the off - season. The market is in a state of shock [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on May 12 and May 9, 2025 [7]. Market News - Sino - US reached an agreement in Switzerland last weekend to reduce current high tariffs by 115%. The tariff reduction will last for 90 days, and further negotiations are expected [9]. - Preliminary surveys show that US crude oil and gasoline inventories may decline last week, while distillate inventories are expected to increase. As of May 9, US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by about 2 million barrels [9]. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [11][12][13] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread trends of different contracts for various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio trends between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [59][61][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit trends of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69][72] Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Assistant to the director and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - Du Bingqin: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has in - depth research on the energy industry and has won many industry awards [75]. - Di Yilin: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won some industry awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - Peng Haibo: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC. With a background in engineering and finance, he has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [77].