光大期货有色商品日报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight LME copper rose and then fell. US budget surplus and tariff revenue data eased deficit pressure, and China - US trade negotiations made better - than - expected progress, with 91% of additional tariffs cancelled and 24% of counter - tariffs suspended. LME copper inventory decreased by 1025 tons to 190750 tons. Domestic demand orders are currently stable but may slow down as the peak season turns to the off - season. The positive outcome of the trade negotiations is expected to boost risk appetite and support copper prices in the short term. Copper prices are expected to reach the 78000 - 80000 yuan/ton range, but investors should pay attention to downstream acceptance at high prices and potential price fluctuations based on fundamentals and inventory [1]. Aluminum - Alumina trended strongly with AO2509 closing at 2832 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and open interest increasing by 16955 lots to 289600 lots. Shanghai aluminum also trended strongly with AL2506 closing at 19935 yuan/ton, up 0.91%, and open interest decreasing by 2103 lots to 166000 lots. There were new maintenance activities in Shanxi and Guangxi alumina. The主力 contract switched to the 09 contract, and the market is trading on the expectation of ore production restrictions in Guinea's rainy season. Aluminum ingot arrivals were low, and downstream restocking after price cuts led to a continuous slight reduction in inventory. With the easing of China - US tariff tensions and improved macro - sentiment, the short - term strong and long - term weak pattern of aluminum prices continues. Attention should be paid to inventory - consumption ratios and future tariff negotiations [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel fell 1.89% to 15550 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.26% to 124180 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 84 tons to 197754 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 23222 tons. Nickel ore prices remained strong, with premiums rising in the Philippines and Indonesia. The center of nickel - iron transaction prices moved down to 940 yuan/nickel point. There was a slight reduction in 300 - series stainless steel production, but demand - side inventory increased. In the new energy sector, raw material supply recovered, MHP prices declined, and the immediate profit of nickel sulfate slightly improved, but the demand for ternary precursors in May decreased slightly. In the short term, the macro - sentiment has improved, and the Philippine nickel ore event has attracted market attention, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish. However, with the continuous weakening of nickel - iron prices and potential domestic primary nickel inventory accumulation, nickel prices will likely remain volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On May 12, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 78260 yuan/ton with a premium of - 30 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 72300 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1025 tons, and SHFE total inventory decreased by 8602 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 370 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16880 yuan/ton on May 12, 2025, up 140 yuan/ton from May 9. LME lead inventory decreased by 1625 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 2718 tons [3]. Aluminum - On May 12, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 19810 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price was 19760 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2025 tons, and SHFE total inventory decreased by 6192 tons. The inventory of alumina decreased by 0.8 million tons [4]. Nickel - On May 12, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 128225 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 84 tons, and SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 867 tons [4]. Zinc - The main - contract settlement price on May 12, 2025, was 22325 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from May 9. LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. Social inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons [5]. Tin - The main - contract settlement price on May 12, 2025, was 261110 yuan/ton, up 0.1% from May 9. LME tin inventory increased by 85 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 190 tons [5]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including those on spot premium, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][14][21][28][34][41]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals research team at Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [48][49].