Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The new tariff agreement between China and the US has alleviated market concerns about Sino-US trade issues, slightly boosting the polyolefin market. However, the cost support for polyolefins is weak. Propane prices are strong, and the production profit of PDH-made PP remains significantly in the red. Multiple new PDH units have been shut down for maintenance, and their restart times are undetermined. There is an expectation of rising PDH costs in the future. The new plant of Huizhou ExxonMobil has increased production, and among the existing plants, more PE plants have been shut down, leading to a slight decline in the PE operating rate, while the PP operating rate has increased. The polyolefin market faces significant supply pressure. Polyolefin producers' inventories have accumulated substantially, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has declined seasonally, while the operating rates of other industries have remained stable, mainly for essential purchases [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7090元/吨(+114),PP主力合约收盘价为7030元/吨(+63),LL华北现货为7210元/吨(+0),LL华东现货为7230元/吨(-20),PP华东现货为7160元/吨(+0),LL华北基差为120元/吨(-114),LL华东基差为140元/吨(-134),PP华东基差为130元/吨(-63) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.1%(-0.8%),PP开工率为79.7%(+5.4%);PE油制生产利润为518.1元/吨(-162.9),PP油制生产利润为188.1元/吨(-162.9),PDH制PP生产利润为-525.4元/吨(-47.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non-Standard Price Spread - No specific data provided in the given content. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-87.6元/吨(+70.8),PP进口利润为-301.1元/吨(+10.0),PP出口利润为26.0美元/吨(-1.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为19.4%(-4.0%),PE下游包装膜开工率为47.6%(-0.3%),PP下游塑编开工率为44.8%(-0.2%),PP下游BOPP膜开工率为57.6%(-1.9%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin producers' inventories have accumulated substantially, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [2] Strategy - 单边:塑料谨慎偏空;跨期:无 [3]
聚烯烃日报:中美关税缓和,聚烯烃小幅提振-20250513
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-13 05:17