Guoxin Securities·2025-05-13 05:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][28] Core Views - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to decline by 17.7%, but there is a significant improvement in Q1 2025 with a net profit growth of 27% [1][9] - The company achieved a revenue of 69.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, while Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 21.85 billion yuan, up 37% year-on-year and 52% quarter-on-quarter [1][9] - The company has a strong order backlog, with new orders exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2024 and a 36% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025 [3][23] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 14.2%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 16.6% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in profitability [2][15] - The total impairment loss for 2024 was 1.294 billion yuan, an increase of 620 million yuan from 2023, with a significant portion recognized in Q4 2024 [2][15] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 76.32 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 4.34 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 48.5% year-on-year [5][31] Market Position and Orders - The company holds a market share of 41.6% in pumped storage and 45% in conventional hydropower, maintaining a leading position in the industry [3][24] - In 2024, the company secured new orders totaling 101.14 billion yuan, a 17% increase year-on-year, with a focus on clean and efficient energy equipment [3][23] - The company aims to achieve a power generation equipment output of 73 GW in 2025, up from 58.1 GW in 2024, indicating a growth of 26% [3][4] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.28 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.7 for the same year [5][29] - The forecast for net profit for 2026 and 2027 is 5.52 billion yuan and 6.09 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 27.2% and 10.3% [5][31] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12.7 for 2025, 10.0 for 2026, and 9.0 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [4][28]