风险情绪回升下铅价维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Post - holiday, the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries remains weak, and some manufacturers continue to consume inventory. With the current off - season, lead prices may stay relatively weak. However, due to the improved market sentiment from the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, lead prices may be relatively resistant to decline under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector. The recommended operation strategy is to buy low and sell high [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was $4.69 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, waste white shells rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,995 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 42,622 lots, an increase of 13,667 lots. The holding volume was 33,309 lots, a decrease of 145 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,800 - 17,015 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,940 yuan/ton and closed at 16,920 yuan/ton, a 0.03% decline from the afternoon close. After the basis widened, some Henan suppliers' discount to the SHFE lead 2506 contract slightly expanded to 180 - 160 yuan/ton. Hunan smelters maintained a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SMM1 lead price, and traders' discount was about 50 yuan/ton. Market transactions improved compared to last Friday, with downstream buyers mainly for rigid demand and some enterprises restocking slightly [2] Inventory - On May 12, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 47,000 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week. As of May 12, the LME lead inventory was 251,800 tons, a decrease of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [2]