Group 1 - The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry Group 2 - After the Sino-US trade talks in Geneva reached a temporary agreement and significantly reduced tariffs, the market's risk appetite increased, and the safe-haven sentiment declined, leading to a full decline in national bonds and national bond futures. Investors expect the easing of Sino-US relations to help stabilize the global economy, reducing the urgency for loose monetary policies. Coupled with the strong rebound of the US stock market and the pressure of capital outflow from the bond market, the yield of spot bonds increased, and the price of bond futures decreased. Overall, the short-term pressure on the bond market mainly reflects the temporary convergence of macro risk premiums [2] Group 3 Unilateral strategy - The repo rate declined, and the price of national bond futures fluctuated. The 2506 contract was neutral [3] Arbitrage strategy - Focus on the widening of the basis [3] Hedging strategy - There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short sellers can moderately hedge using far-month contracts [3] Group 4 Interest rate pricing tracking indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month decrease of 0.40% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.70%. The social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 5.67 trillion yuan and a month-on-month increase rate of 1.36%. The M2 year-on-year growth rate was 7.00%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.50% and a month-on-month decrease rate of 2.97%. The US dollar index was 101.79, with a day-on-day increase of 1.38 and a day-on-day increase rate of 1.37%. The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.2246, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.026 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -0.35%. The SHIBOR 7-day rate was 1.50%, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.02 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -1.51%. The DR007 rate was 1.50%, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.04 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -2.87%. The R007 rate was 1.76%, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.21 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -10.82%. The 3M yield of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA) was 1.62%, with a day-on-day increase of 0.01 and a day-on-day increase rate of 0.62%. The AA-AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.12%, with a day-on-day increase of 0.00 and a day-on-day increase rate of 0.62% [8] Group 5 National bonds and national bond futures market overview - The report includes multiple charts related to the national bond futures market, such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of national bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of national bond futures, the maturity yield trend of national bonds with various maturities, the one-day valuation change of national bonds with various maturities, the precipitation funds trend of each variety of national bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of national bond futures, etc. [13][15][17] Group 6 Money market capital situation - The report includes multiple charts related to the money market, such as the trading volume and position ratio of each variety of national bond futures, the bond lending turnover and total position volume of national bond futures, the spread between national development bonds and national bonds, the issuance of national bonds, etc. [27][23][25] Group 7 Spread situation - The report includes multiple charts related to spreads, such as the inter-period spread trend of each variety of national bond futures, the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross-variety spreads, etc. [37][41][42] Group 8 Two-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to two-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the TS main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the TS main contract, etc. [44][47] Group 9 Five-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to five-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the TF main contract, the three-year basis trend of the TF main contract, etc. [54][57] Group 10 Ten-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to ten-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the T main contract, the three-year basis trend of the T main contract, etc. [66][68] Group 11 Thirty-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to thirty-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the TL main contract, the three-year basis trend of the TL main contract, etc. [73][78]
国债期货日报：中美日内瓦会谈影响债市情绪，国债期货全线收跌-20250513
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-13 05:15