中美谈判取得实质性进展，市场情绪回暖

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification, and long - term attention is on stagflation allocation. The market sentiment has warmed up due to the substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, and subsequent attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the negotiations and the sensitive commodities. Global trade policy games also need attention, and there are impacts on trade and inflation expectations [2][3][5] Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut. The financial regulatory administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market" [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From May 9 - 12, Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the two sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism, which significantly warmed up the market sentiment [2] - Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation progress of Sino - US negotiations and commodities sensitive to this event, such as crude oil, container shipping index, and gold [2] Global Trade Policy Game - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and specific products may have export limits. For example, the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US each year will be taxed at an additional 10% tariff rate, and the excess will be taxed at an additional 25% tariff rate [3] - This "tax rate + quantity" restriction idea will have an obvious impact on global trade, and the key lies in the negotiation process with other countries. The US - Japan and US - South Korea tariff negotiations may take a long time, and Japan requires the cancellation of automobile tariffs and adheres to the zero - tariff demand [3] - The long - term inflation expectation has been slightly revised downwards. If the weighted average import tariff rate is adjusted down, the pressure on long - term inflation will also be reduced [3] US FOMC Meeting - The US May FOMC meeting statement maintained the target interest rate unchanged. The economic outlook uncertainty "further" increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. Powell emphasized that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades the decline in demand and then trades the increase in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals need to be vigilant against the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market [5] - An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru has supported copper prices. Agricultural product prices are more likely to rise due to tariffs, and China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased purchases from Brazil [5] - Crude oil prices have declined. OPEC + confirmed on May 3 that it will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue the current production increase rhythm in July, with a shift in strategy from production restriction to market share competition. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027 [5] - Due to the high uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the continuous game of global trade policies, the risk of a gold price correction needs to be vigilant [5] Sino - US Economic and Trade Talks - The joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks pointed out that the US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the implementation of 24% tariffs within the initial 90 days and retaining the remaining 10% tariffs. China will make corresponding modifications to the tariffs on US goods, and both sides will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [8] - The two sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations, and consultations can be held in China, the US, or a third country agreed by both sides [8] Japan's Stance on US Tariff Negotiations - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reiterated his stance in the negotiations with the US, demanding the cancellation of all additional tariffs, especially those on automobiles, and insisting on the zero - tariff demand [3][8]