中美会谈达成协议，金价承压回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has rebounded due to the Sino-US trade agreement, causing the prices of precious metals to come under pressure. The Fed is temporarily on hold, while other central banks may cut interest rates. Gold may show a temporary oscillatory pattern, but a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained. Silver's rhythm is generally similar to that of gold, and it may perform stronger than gold in the short - term when market risk sentiment rebounds [1][8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement announced that each side would cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend the implementation of 24% of tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary will study how to solve non - tariff barrier issues. Fed Governor Kugler supports keeping interest rates unchanged and believes tariffs will have a significant impact [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 12, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 790.16 yuan/gram and closed at 772.28 yuan/gram, down 2.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 608,130 lots, and the open interest was 210,772 lots. The night - session closed at 760.70 yuan/gram, down 2.52% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,180 yuan/kg and closed at 8,232 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 482,373 lots, and the open interest was 204,592 lots. The night - session closed at 8,145 yuan/kg, down 0.74% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 12, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.37%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.47%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, long positions changed by 1,747 lots, and short positions changed by 113 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 830,740 lots, down 11.57% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 883 lots, and short positions increased by 597 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,137,536 lots, down 17.77% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 939.05 tons, up 1.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,025.45 tons, up 8.49 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.41 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 436.01 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 93.81, down 2.81% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 101.25, down 0.28% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 81,162 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 477,976 kg, up 2.87% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,838 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 25,710 kg [7] Strategy - Gold may show a temporary oscillatory pattern, and a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained. Silver's rhythm is generally similar to that of gold, and it may perform stronger than gold in the short - term when market risk sentiment rebounds. Attention should be paid to position and stop - loss control when trading silver [8][9]