持货商出货情绪有所分化，铜价维持震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - After the UK and the US reached a trade agreement, market risk sentiment has emerged. The persistently low TC price also indicates that copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On May 12, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,950 yuan/ton and closed at 78,260 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,080 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Situation: On the previous day, the sentiment of cargo holders to sell was divided. Some enterprises started trading at par at the beginning of the session, dragging down the transaction price. During the mainstream trading period, the price of mainstream flat copper gradually dropped from a discount of 10 yuan/ton to a discount of 50 yuan/ton. Non-registered goods were at a discount of around 100 yuan/ton. As the copper price rose during the day, downstream buyers pressured prices significantly, with transactions at discounts ranging from 140 to 100 yuan/ton [2] - Important Information Summary: - Macro and Geopolitical: The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, stating that China and the US each cancelled 91% of tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of tariffs, leading to a rebound in market risk sentiment and a strengthening of copper prices [3] - Domestic: In the first four months of this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time in history [3] - Mineral End: Barrick Mining began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the single-letter stock code "B". First Quantum Minerals remains cautiously optimistic about the future of its Cobre Panamá copper mine, and the Panamanian government is evaluating how to restart the mine while safeguarding national interests [4] - Smelting and Import: In 2025, 24 cathode copper production enterprises with a total effective cathode copper production capacity of 12.065 million tons were tracked, a 7.25% increase from the previous year, accounting for 83.84% of the country's total effective production capacity. In April, the output of copper smelting sample enterprises increased significantly, exceeding 1.05 million tons. It is estimated that the cathode copper output in May will increase slightly to 1.07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.86% and a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [5] - Consumption: Currently, the copper price is at a high level and shows a volatile trend. Downstream enterprises are becoming more cautious and wait-and-see. The consumption situation in the market has weakened. Last week, the overall market procurement was mainly for rigid demand at low prices [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,500 tons to 190,750 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 919 tons to 20,084 tons. On May 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 123,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7]