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宏观情绪好转,航运端需求预期改善
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-13 05:07

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.5% at 2,996 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.56% at 3,518 yuan/ton [1] - After the first round of China-US negotiations issued a joint statement, the macro sentiment warmed up, and the international oil price rebounded, driving up downstream products including fuel oil [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the positive progress of tariff negotiations improved the demand expectation on the shipping side, which was beneficial to the consumption of marine fuel oil [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the important driver in the future comes from the increasing demand for power generation in the Middle East and other regions, and the current purchasing momentum is good. However, Egypt will receive an FSRU from Germany in July, which will reduce the local power plants' substitution demand for high-sulfur fuel oil [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the easing of global trade conflicts is beneficial to demand, but the trend of consumption share being replaced continues. The ECA area that came into effect in May led to a decline in the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel oil in Europe and affected the Asia-Pacific market through the increase in arbitrage cargo volume. In addition, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the mid-term fundamental contradiction has not been completely resolved [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate [2] - Cross-variety: no strategy [2] - Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity to go long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices, and the previous long positions can take appropriate profits [2] - Spot-futures: no strategy [2] - Options: no strategy [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include the spot prices, swap near-month contracts, and near-month spreads of Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3]