光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250513

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices were stable on Monday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1,897 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. Spot prices rose locally. Daily output increased to 202,600 tons. Demand was decent. Short - term market focus is on urea export details on Wednesday. If exports are confirmed to be liberalized, the market will be supported; otherwise, it will face pressure [1]. - Soda ash futures prices opened low and strengthened on Monday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. Spot prices were mostly stable. Industry maintenance increased, and the operating rate dropped to 77.57%. Supply is expected to decline further. Demand was weak. The market has priced in the expected supply decline. Global macro - sentiment recovery may bring fluctuations, and prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - Glass futures prices strengthened on Monday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. Spot prices were weak. Supply may increase. Demand was cautious. The glass industry's sentiment was still cautious. Without new positive factors, prices are expected to remain range - bound [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On May 12, the futures warehouse receipt volume was 4,900, down 70 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 480 [4]. - On May 12, the daily output was 202,600 tons, up 90 tons from the previous day and 27,500 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 87.84%, up 6.99 percentage points from last year [4]. - On May 12, small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong were 1,970 yuan/ton (+50), in Henan 1,930 yuan/ton (+20), in Hebei 1,960 yuan/ton (+10), in Anhui 1,940 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu 1,940 yuan/ton (+10), and in Shanxi 1,890 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On May 12, soda ash futures warehouse receipt quantity was 3,106, down 237 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2,298. Glass futures warehouse receipt quantity was 2,380, up 115 from the previous day [6]. - On May 12, soda ash spot prices in North China were 1,400 yuan/ton (light) and 1,500 yuan/ton (heavy), in Central China 1,270 yuan/ton (light) and 1,400 yuan/ton (heavy), in East China 1,350 yuan/ton (light) and 1,450 yuan/ton (heavy), in South China 1,500 yuan/ton (light) and 1,550 yuan/ton (heavy), in Southwest China 1,400 yuan/ton (light) and 1,450 yuan/ton (heavy), and in Northwest China 1,100 yuan/ton (both light and heavy), all unchanged from the previous day [6]. - On May 12, the soda ash industry operating rate was 77.57%, down from 84.20% the previous day [7]. - On May 12, the average price of the float glass market was 1,270 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output was 155,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price spreads between related futures contracts [9][11][13]