黑色商品日报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to show a repeated oscillation trend. Although the supply - demand fundamentals of rebar are weakening, the macro - sentiment is strengthening due to the positive outcome of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate. With a slight decrease in global shipments, an increase in iron - water production, and a decrease in port and steel - mill inventories, the market is in a state of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The positive outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations boosts market sentiment, and the high - level operation of blast - furnace iron - water production maintains the demand for these two commodities [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be on the strong side. The better - than - expected results of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and some production - reduction news in the main production areas drive the prices of these two commodities up [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price rebounded significantly, with the 2510 contract closing at 3082 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 1.99% from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 164,000 lots. The spot price also rose sharply, and the national building materials trading volume was 135,400 tons. The national building materials inventory decreased by 4.08% to 4.4193 million tons, while the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.23% to 2.0003 million tons [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed an oscillating and strengthening trend, closing at 718.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton or 3.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 580,000 lots and an increase in positions of 4,000 lots. The port spot price increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 889.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.37% from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 3,159 lots. The spot price of some coking coal decreased [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1471.5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 1.73% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 10 lots. The port spot price increased [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5866 yuan/ton, up 1.8% month - on - month, and the position of the main contract decreased by 19,387 lots to 381,200 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon increased in some regions [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5636 yuan/ton, up 1.55% month - on - month, and the position of the main contract increased by 21,649 lots. The summary price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon increased in some regions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various commodities have different spread values and their corresponding month - on - month changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 21.0, down 6.0 month - on - month [4]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts of various commodities also has different values and month - on - month changes, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 138.0, down 10.0 month - on - month [4]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various commodities in different regions have different values and month - on - month changes, like the Shanghai spot price of rebar is 3220.0, up 50.0 month - on - month [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The profits and spreads of different commodities also have corresponding values and month - on - month changes, such as the rebar disk profit being 117.7, up 10.4 month - on - month [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][31][33][35][36][39]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - variety contracts such as the main - contract hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc. [41][42][43]. - Rebar Profits: There are charts showing the profits of rebar main contracts, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][47][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of resource products [52]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].