FICC日报：中美联合声明超预期，美线抢出口预期推动盘面大涨-20250513

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The joint statement between China and the US exceeded expectations, and the expectation of pre - export rush on the US route drove the futures market to rise sharply. However, the 06 contract still faces a weak reality, and the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. The 06 contract will gradually return to "reality" trading as the delivery date approaches, while the 08 contract will still be affected by both expectations and reality. [1][4] - The US tariff policy has led to significant changes in the US route. Some shipping capacity on the US route has overflowed to the European route. After the joint statement, the US has adjusted its tariffs on China. There are many suspended voyages on the China - US route in April and May, but the shipping capacity will recover in June. There may be opportunities for supply - demand mismatch due to the pre - export rush on the US route in the short term, which will ease the pressure on the European route. [2][5] - The European route market has low prices in mid - to - late May, and the shipping capacity in June is relatively high. The futures market has a large premium over the spot market. Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices and are recommended to use arbitrage strategies. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of May 12, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route was 103,695 lots, and the daily trading volume was 158,451 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1500.20, 1360.00, 1466.20, 1794.00, 1481.60, and 1683.00 respectively. [6] 2. Spot Price - On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1200/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $2272/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East route) price was $3283/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points. [6][7] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU have been delivered. Among them, 30 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 451,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 70,872 TEU have been delivered. [7] - The shipping capacity in May has been gradually revised upwards. The shipping capacities in WEEK20/21/22 were 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively, and the average weekly shipping capacity in May was about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024. The average weekly shipping capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU. A total of 11 US - bound ships have been transferred to the European route, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. The average weekly shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June is 285,100 TEU. [2] 4. Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided, only figure references.