国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Strongly bullish (trend intensity = 2): None - Bullish (trend intensity = 1): PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, paper pulp, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [2][12][13][16][19][22][46][86] - Neutral (trend intensity = 0): LLDPE, PP,烧碱, glass, methanol, urea,纯碱, PVC [34][38][41][50][53][59][66][81] - Bearish (trend intensity = - 1): benzene ethylene, LPG [63][70] - Strongly bearish (trend intensity = - 2): None 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple energy - chemical commodities, covering market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements. It suggests that the overall market is influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, trade policies, and industry - specific supply - demand balances. For example, the Sino - US trade reconciliation has a positive impact on market sentiment, but different commodities face different supply - demand situations, leading to varying price trends [7][12][34]. 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Unilateral shock is bullish. Supply - side issues include load reduction of some domestic and overseas devices, while demand - side PTA device maintenance is still high. In the medium - to - long - term, PTA processing fees are difficult to expand, and attention should be paid to positions where PTA processing fees are compressed [12]. - PTA: Unilateral trend is bullish. The supply decreases while demand increases, and inventory is continuously depleted. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, textile and clothing export demand is expected to increase, and polyester production and sales continue to rise. It is recommended to short PTA processing fees at high prices [12]. - MEG: Hold the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. The basis and monthly spread will strengthen in May. Supply - side starts are expected to remain flat, port arrivals decrease, and polyester demand improves [13]. Rubber - The market is bullish with a shock. The futures market shows an increase in prices and trading volume, and the spot market price is fully adjusted upwards. The inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly, and the macro - news is favorable [14][16][18]. Synthetic Rubber - Driven by macro - economic recovery, it is running strongly. The cost of butadiene is stable, the demand from the synthetic rubber end increases, and the valuation of butadiene rubber provides some support for prices [19][20]. Asphalt - With the rebound of crude oil, it is in a strong shock. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts have changed, and the inventory of refineries has increased slightly. The overall market is affected by the price trend of crude oil [22][33]. LLDPE - It is in a wide - range shock. Although the Sino - US reconciliation is positive in sentiment, the supply pressure of polyethylene is still high, demand faces negative feedback, and the market tends to short polyethylene profits [34][35]. PP - The price is in a shock, and low - level transactions are good. The futures market is volatile, and the spot market is affected by macro - news. Low - price transactions improved in the afternoon [38][39]. Caustic Soda - It is in a short - term shock, and there is still pressure in the later stage. Short - term downstream replenishment supports the price rebound, but future production is still high. Demand is in the off - season, and supply reduction is needed to balance supply and demand [41][42]. Paper Pulp - It is bullish with a shock. The futures price has increased, and the spot price of coniferous pulp has been raised, but the actual transaction is mainly for small orders with rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the raw material replenishment of downstream paper mills and port inventory changes [46][48]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot market price is mainly stable with partial minor adjustments, and regional production, sales, and inventory vary [50]. Methanol - With the improvement of macro - sentiment, it is in a short - term shock. The spot price has increased slightly, and the inventory in some ports has accumulated. The import pressure in June is expected to be high [53][56][57]. Urea - It is in a shock with support. The futures market is in a long - short game, and the price has toughness due to the release of demand in some regions. The enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline [60][61][62]. Benzene Ethylene - It is in a short - term shock. Pure benzene is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with limited short - term downward space but still weak in the medium - term. Benzene ethylene is expected to compress profits from May to June [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The market is stable with a shock, the supply is slightly down, and downstream demand is weak, with a short - term stable trend expected [66][68]. LPG - The impact of tariffs has eased, and the internal market support is weak. The futures price has declined slightly, and the operating rates of some downstream industries have changed. Multiple PDH devices are under maintenance [70][77]. PVC - It is in a temporary shock market. Although the Sino - US reconciliation is positive in sentiment, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and export demand can only relieve the pressure temporarily [81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The daytime session is in a narrow - range shock, and the night session rises sharply. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the strength of crude oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external market continues to retract [86].