宏观研究：极端关税缓和下，未来可能的三种结果

Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The US and China have significantly reduced extreme tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24%, while retaining a 10% base tariff[1] - The 10% tariff may serve as the lower limit for US tariffs on China, with potential adjustments ranging from 10% to 30%[1] - The suspension of the 24% tariffs is temporary, with a possibility of reactivation after 90 days[1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate risks for Chinese exports to the US, thereby stabilizing the economic outlook[1] - The trade negotiations are anticipated to positively impact A-shares and the overall market, with short-term boosts expected[1] - Long-term economic recovery may be accelerated by domestic monetary policies, benefiting export-oriented companies[1] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a weaker-than-expected US job market are potential risk factors[1] - The ongoing US debt ceiling issue complicates fiscal stability, making tariff revenue more critical than extreme tariffs[1] - The political pressure from midterm elections may influence further tariff adjustments by the Trump administration[1]