Goldman Sachs·2025-05-13 05:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GDS and VNET, with target prices set at US$42/HK$41 for GDS and US$13 for VNET, indicating upside potentials of 65% and 118% respectively [8][64]. Core Insights - The growth outlook for the China data center sector remains unchanged, with expectations for GDS and VNET to report revenue growth of +16% and +18% year-over-year respectively for 1Q25 [1][61]. - The industry-wide utilization rate is projected to improve from approximately 60% in 2024 to over 70% by 2026, driven by increasing demand from AI and cloud services [20][22]. - Recent developments in domestic chips and AI technologies are expected to sustain wholesale data center demand in the mid-term, while retail demand may recover in the near term [37][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance Expectations - GDS is expected to report 1Q25 revenue of Rmb2.8 billion (+16% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of Rmb1.3 billion (+18% YoY), aligning with consensus data [60]. - VNET is anticipated to report 1Q25 revenue of Rmb2.2 billion (+18% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of Rmb610 million (+13% YoY), slightly below consensus expectations [61]. 2. Demand-Supply Dynamics - The report highlights a dual scenario of supply tightness and oversupply in China's data center market, with utilization rates expected to rise significantly by 2026 [20][36]. - Demand for data center capacity is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2027, reaching 26GW by 2027 [22][25]. 3. Financing Developments - GDS and VNET have made significant progress in financing, enabling them to meet their capital expenditure requirements for 2025, with GDS needing Rmb4.3 billion and VNET Rmb10-12 billion [50][55]. - GDS has completed an ABS issuance, monetizing data center assets and generating Rmb1.2 billion in net cash proceeds [51]. 4. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that AI will account for 24% of the market demand by 2027, up from 11% in 2024, indicating a substantial shift in demand drivers [28]. - The upcoming results from major cloud players like Tencent and Alibaba are expected to provide insights into capital expenditure trends, which are crucial for the data center sector [38][59].