高盛：GOAL Kickstart-追踪资产的关税风险逆转 - 趋于中性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating across assets for a 12-month horizon, with a modest overweight to cash depending on risk tolerance [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift towards a more neutral stance on risky assets following recent tariff de-escalation events and positive trade negotiations, which have led to a recovery in investor sentiment and positioning [1][2]. - The S&P 500 is projected to have a total return forecast of 0% over the next 3 months and 9% over the next 12 months, reflecting a less attractive asymmetry for equities in the current macroeconomic environment [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selective defensive overlay strategies, including protective option hedges, in light of the recent volatility reset [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Recent tariff de-escalation events and trade agreements have positively influenced the US macroeconomic outlook, prompting economists to upgrade their baseline forecasts [1]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained the Fed Funds rate at 4.25-4.50%, despite rising uncertainty and weak Q1 GDP data [1]. Market Performance - US equities have shown mixed results, while the STOXX 600 has risen for four consecutive weeks, indicating a recovery in European markets [1]. - The VIX index has dropped below 20, marking its lowest level since early April, reflecting reduced market volatility [1][2]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a neutral stance on equities and bonds for the next 3 months, while maintaining an overweight position in cash and underweight in commodities to mitigate risk [6][23]. - Specific forecasts for major indices include a projected S&P 500 level of 5660, with a 12-month target of 6200, indicating a potential upside of 11% [23]. Currency and Commodity Insights - The US Dollar has weakened approximately 5% against other G10 currencies since February, while currencies like the Euro and Swiss Franc have appreciated [2][19]. - Commodity prices, including Brent and Copper, are projected to experience declines, with Brent expected to average $57 per barrel over the next 12 months [23].