周度经济观察：如何理解联合声明的含义

Economic Outlook - The joint statement indicates that the most pessimistic expectations for the macro economy are passing, with effective control over tail risks of economic slowdown[2] - The economy is likely to show a V-shaped recovery this year, with a continuation of recovery expected in the second half[2] Trade and Tariffs - The US-China joint statement on May 12, 2025, includes a 90-day suspension of most tariff increases, maintaining US tariffs on China at approximately 42%[4] - April exports decreased by 4.3 percentage points to a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, supported by "transshipment" during the tariff suspension period[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing products, such as ships and automobiles, showed strong growth, with ship exports increasing by 67.8% in April[7] - Exports to the US fell sharply, with a year-on-year decline from 9.1% in March to -21.0% in April, while exports to ASEAN and India grew significantly, at 22.5% and 21.7% respectively[8] Inflation and Prices - April's Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year decreased by 2.7%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable at -0.1% year-on-year[11][13] - The recovery of consumer prices is expected to be gradual, heavily reliant on the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[14] Market Trends - The equity market has been on an upward trend, driven by factors such as military performance in recent conflicts and timely monetary policy responses[16] - The market's focus is shifting back to domestic economic fundamentals, with signs of recovery in consumption, real estate, and manufacturing sectors[18]