国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250513

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Market sentiment is affected by news, but the fundamentals change little [2][4] - Stainless steel: Social inventories are increasing marginally, and the cost expectation supports the futures price [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Although tariffs are alleviated, export profits remain in the red [2][9] - Industrial silicon: The futures price is expected to open high and close low [2][12] - Polysilicon: The news of production cuts is fueling the market, and the futures price is trending strongly [2][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 126,130 yuan, up 2,680 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,890 yuan, up 170 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 235,469 lots, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 114,512 lots [4] - Macro and Industry News: The production line of Indonesia's GNI nickel - iron project has gradually resumed, and the production is expected to increase by about 0.2 million tons of metal per month in March. Indonesia has raised the resource tax rates for nickel - related products. Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US. China's Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesia CNI nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production stage. The US and China reached an agreement on tariff cancellation and adjustment [4][5][6][7] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 64,040 yuan, down 1,020 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 313,934 lots, and the open interest was 284,331 lots. The spot - 2507 spread was 560 yuan [9] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped by 650 yuan/ton. The US and China reached a tariff - adjustment agreement [9][10][11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Si2506 was 8,320 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 249,065 lots, and the open interest was 171,625 lots. The closing price of PS2506 was 38,450 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan. The industrial silicon - social inventory was 59.6 million tons [13] - Macro and Industry News: The 1.2 - million - kilowatt Huadian Xineng Zhongza photovoltaic project in Sichuan Province started construction [13][15] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (weak), and that of polysilicon is 1 (strong) [15]