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农林牧渔行业报告(2025.05.03-2025.05.09):猪价持续微利运行,产能去化暂缓
China Post Securities·2025-05-13 06:03

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][37] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a comprehensive rebound, but the growth in the agricultural sector is relatively small, with the agricultural index rising by 0.99%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The pig price is operating at a micro-profit level, with production capacity reduction slowing down. The average price of pigs as of May 9 is 14.73 CNY/kg, showing slight upward movement due to increased frequency of secondary fattening [6][17] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable chick prices, with the price at 3.10 CNY/chick as of May 9, while the average profit per chick is 0.2 CNY [28] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 2606.49, with a 52-week high of 2927.53 and a low of 2110.64 [2] Market Performance - The agricultural sector index has increased by 0.99%, while the broader market indices such as the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index have risen by 2.00% and 1.92%, respectively [13][14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Industry - The average price of pigs has remained stable between 14.6 and 14.9 CNY/kg since April, with a slight upward shift in average price due to increased secondary fattening [6][17] - As of May 9, self-breeding and self-raising pigs have an average profit of approximately 84 CNY per head, while purchased piglets yield a profit of 58 CNY [18][19] - The breeding stock has shown slight fluctuations, with April data indicating a 0.41% increase in breeding sows [19][20] White Feather Chicken - The chick price remains stable, with a current price of 3.10 CNY/chick and a meat chicken price of 3.75 CNY/kg [28] - The market is experiencing significant polarization, with high chick prices causing resistance from the breeding sector due to rising feed costs [28] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6150 CNY/ton, while corn prices have increased to 2306 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 49 CNY/ton [32]