Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US trade negotiation results were slightly better than market expectations, which had a certain positive impact on the market, but the impact on different industries varied. Some industries were expected to improve in demand, while others still faced challenges such as supply - demand imbalance [23][11] - For most commodities, the short - term market was affected by the negotiation results, but the medium - and long - term trends still depended on their own supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [16][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.63%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - Macro News: Sino - US canceled 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended 24% of the counter - tariffs; traders reduced bets on ECB rate cuts; Goldman Sachs expected the RMB exchange rate to rise to 7 yuan per US dollar within a year [2] - Funding: The margin trading balance decreased by 4.7 billion yuan; the overnight Shibor rate rose 7.5 bp to 1.4970%, etc. [2] - Trading Logic and Strategy: The emotional impact of the tariff policy has weakened. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index long positions on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4] Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On Monday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined [5] - News: Sino - US reached an agreement on tariff adjustments in the Geneva economic and trade talks [5][6] - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 43 billion yuan [6] - Strategy: The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the bond market faced short - term adjustment pressure. However, the short - end bonds were still cost - effective, and the long - end bonds were expected to have opportunities after the callback [6] Precious Metals - Market Performance: Shanghai gold fell 2.52%, Shanghai silver fell 0.75%, while COMEX gold rose 0.37%, and COMEX silver rose 0.48% [7] - Market Outlook: Maintain a short - term bearish and long - term bullish view on gold. In the short term, gold prices may continue to correct, but in the medium term, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit will drive gold prices up [7][8] - Strategy: Wait for the gold price to correct significantly and then buy on dips, focusing on the support at 740 yuan/g. Temporarily observe the silver price, with the reference range of 7553 - 8380 yuan/kg for the Shanghai silver main contract [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: After rising, the copper price fell back. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. The short - term copper price may fluctuate and adjust, with the reference range of 77200 - 78500 yuan/ton for the Shanghai copper main contract [11] - Aluminum: The aluminum price rebounded significantly. The domestic inventory decreased rapidly, but the consumption was seasonally weak. The price was expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 19600 - 20100 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract [12] - Zinc: The zinc price rose. The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to increase, and the short - term zinc price may rebound [13][14] - Lead: The lead price rose. The lead concentrate port inventory continued to increase, and the short - term lead price showed a strong - side shock [15] - Nickel: The nickel price fell significantly. The supply exceeded demand, and it was recommended to hold short positions, with the reference range of 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai nickel main contract [16] - Tin: The tin price rose. The supply was short - term tight but was expected to ease, and the tin price might decline if the demand remained weak, with the reference range of 250000 - 270000 yuan for the domestic main contract [17] - Carbonate Lithium: The price was stable. The short - term bottom was expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to downstream orders, with the reference range of 63400 - 64800 yuan/ton for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2507 contract [18] - Alumina: The price rose. The supply was disturbed, and the cost support declined. It was recommended to observe in the short term, with the reference range of 2650 - 3000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract AO2509 [19] - Stainless Steel: The price rose. The Sino - US negotiation boosted market confidence, and the supply was worried about the Philippine export ban. The demand was weak, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and demand recovery [20] Black Building Materials - Steel: The price of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The Sino - US trade tariff reduction might boost market confidence, and the demand for plates might improve marginally in the short term [22][23] - Iron Ore: The price rebounded. The supply was slightly reduced, and the demand was expected to peak and decline. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [24] - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass price was stable, with inventory accumulation and expected weak operation. The soda ash supply decreased slightly, and the inventory was high. The medium - term supply was loose, and the price was expected to be weak [25][26] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The prices of both rose. The manganese silicon was expected to stop falling and enter the shock stage, and the ferrosilicon was recommended to be observed or short - term tracked. The demand for both was expected to weaken [27][28] - Industrial Silicon: The price rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was insufficient. It was recommended to observe and beware of price decline [31][32] Energy and Chemicals - Rubber: The rubber price rebounded. Thailand planned to postpone tapping, but the market had different expectations for production reduction. It was recommended to operate short - term and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [34][37] - Crude Oil: The price rose. The current oil price was considered to be in the high - valuation range, and it was recommended to short on rallies [38] - Methanol and Urea: The prices of both rose. The supply increased, and the demand weakened. It was recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [39][40][41] - Styrene: The price rose. The cost and supply were affected by multiple factors, and the price was treated as a rebound [42] - PVC: The price rose. The supply and demand were weak, and the short - term price was expected to rebound and the medium - term to fluctuate weakly [43] - Ethylene Glycol: The price rose. The industry was in the de - stocking stage, and it was recommended to buy on dips when the port de - stocking was confirmed [44] - PTA and p - Xylene: The prices of both rose. They were in the maintenance season, and it was recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [45][46] - Polyethylene PE: The price rose. The supply might be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price was expected to fluctuate [47][48] - Polypropylene PP: The price rose. The supply had no new capacity in May, and the demand was in the off - season. The price was expected to fluctuate weakly [49] Agricultural Products - Hogs: The price was mainly stable. The short - term price fluctuated little, and it was recommended to short on rallies in the shock market [51] - Eggs: The price mostly rose. The supply pressure was large, and it was recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [52] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The US soybean rose. The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short term [53][54] - Oils and Fats: The palm oil was affected by production and exports, and the US soybean oil was expected to be boosted by policies. The oils and fats were expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [55][57] - Sugar: The price rebounded. The domestic sugar price might be high - volatile in the short term but was likely to decline in the future [58][59] - Cotton: The price rebounded. The Sino - US negotiation boosted the short - term price, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with attention to inventory changes [60]
五矿期货文字早评-20250513
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-05-13 06:17