有色金属周报（铅）：上有阻力下有支撑，铅价区间整理-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price as the global lead concentrate supply has long - term incremental expectations but short - term uncertainties, and the supply of scrap batteries is tight [3]. - On the supply side, primary lead supply is stable with a slight increase due to the resumption of previously - shut - down refineries, while secondary lead production cuts are expanding because of raw material shortages and high costs [3]. - The demand side is in the off - season, with battery distributors and producers being cautious in lead ingot purchases, and spot transactions moving towards discount trading [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, secondary lead producers hold back goods or quote high due to cost pressures, and inventory accumulation may slow down as production cuts expand. Primary lead holders actively sell [3]. - In the short term, the lead price is expected to remain range - bound between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials and the macro - environment on the lead price [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.89% to 16,625 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 0.53% to 16,805 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.54% to 1,981.5 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of April 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues) was - 37.48 yuan/ton [32]. - The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 67.35%. Some refineries have maintenance plans [33][39]. - The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 49,995 tons, with a slight increase compared to the previous period [40]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials, Further Expansion of Secondary Lead Production Cuts - As of May 9, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous period. The supply of scrap batteries was tight, and the procurement prices of secondary lead refineries were high [48]. - As of May 9, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 653 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 878 yuan/ton [54]. - As of May 9, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 105,900 tons, and the finished product inventory was 17,400 tons. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [58]. - The secondary lead operating rate decreased by 4.81 percentage points to 37.65%. The weekly output decreased, and some refineries were forced to shut down due to raw material shortages [61]. 3.4 Post - holiday Resumption of Work and Production, Off - season Situation Remains Unchanged - The lead battery operating rate increased by 9.73 percentage points to 64.79%. After the May Day holiday, battery enterprises resumed work, but the off - season situation continued, and new orders were weak [71]. 3.5 Import and Export Profit Window Closed - As of April 30, the refined lead export loss was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of May 9, the import profit was - 623.9 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [83]. 3.6 Social Inventory Accumulation - As of May 8, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 47,500 tons, an increase in inventory. Weak demand and the expansion of the futures - spot price difference led to an increase in the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse [89]. - As of May 9, SHFE refined lead inventory increased to 49,500 tons, and LME inventory decreased to 253,400 tons [92]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory of lead from February 2024 to March 2025 [93].