申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250513

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The easing of tariffs in the short - term is positive news, causing gold and silver prices to decline. With the release of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement, the temporary tax relief and reduction exceeded market expectations, leading to a continued correction in gold and silver prices. Given that the market is in a stage of expecting a cooling of tariff conflicts and there is unlikely to be a rapid interest rate cut in the short - term, gold may enter a correction phase, and silver also lacks upward momentum. However, gold still has overall support due to the decline in confidence in US dollar assets and concerns about a US recession [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 770.30 and 776.24 respectively, with declines of - 16.02 and - 16.32, and drops of - 2.04% and - 2.06%. The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 8232.00 and 8295.00 respectively, with increases of 64.00 and 63.00, and rises of 0.78% and 0.77%. The trading volumes are 169801 and 29027 for Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512, and 483540 and 24604 for Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 [2]. - Positions: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 87624 and 53842, and those of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 209420 and 116409 [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D were 785.3, 774.29, and 8150.00 respectively. The price changes were - 2.23, 4.33, and 50.00, and the percentage changes were - 0.28%, 0.56%, and 0.62% [2]. - Price Spreads: The current values of the spreads between Shanghai Gold 2512 and 2506, and Shanghai Silver 2512 and 2506 are 5.94 and 63 respectively, and the previous values were 6.24 and 64 [2]. Inventory - Inventory Changes: The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver inventories are 17,238 kg and 934,459 kg, with increases of 1,590.00 kg and 2,477.00 kg compared to the previous values. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 39,154,147 and 503,581,350, with increases of 22,864.13 and 781250 [2]. Related Market - Indices and Yields: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.4218, 5659.91, 4.37, 63.88, and 7.2402 respectively, with changes of - 0.21%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and - 0.05% [2]. - ETF and CFTC Positions: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2]. Macro News - Trade Policies: The US and China agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports [3][5]. - US Pharmaceutical Policy: US President Trump signed an executive order requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower drug prices, aiming for a price reduction of 59% - 90%, but analysts and legal experts believe it is difficult to implement [3]. - Central Bank Statements: A Fed governor said that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. European Central Bank officials said they need to be cautious about the next interest - rate move due to the high uncertainty of Trump's economic policies. Goldman Sachs adjusted the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December, raised the forecast of the US economic growth rate in Q4 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowered the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35% [3][4].