国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250513

Report Date - The report is dated May 13, 2025 [1][5] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend intensities of each commodity to predict their price movements [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The price is affected by the progress of Sino-US trade. The trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9] - Silver: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend intensity is -1 [2][5][9] Base Metals - Copper: The strong LME copper spot price supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13] - Aluminum: Expected to trade weakly in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][14][16] - Alumina: Likely to consolidate at a low level. The trend intensity is 0 [2][14][16] - Zinc: The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to tariff disturbances. The trend intensity is -1 [2][17][18] - Lead: With weak supply and demand, the price will adjust within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][20][21] - Tin: Expected to trade in a narrow range. The trend intensity is -1 [2][23][26] - Nickel: News affects market sentiment, but the fundamentals change little. The trend intensity is 0 [2][27][32] - Stainless Steel: The social inventory increases marginally, and the cost expectation supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [2][27][32] Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Although the tariff situation eases, the export profit remains in the red. The trend intensity is 0 [2][33][35] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price is expected to open high and close low. The trend intensity is -1 [2][36][39] - Polysilicon: The news of production cuts drives the price higher. The trend intensity is 1 [2][37][39] - Iron Ore: The price fluctuates widely due to changing expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][40][42] - Rebar: The price rebounds from a low level boosted by macro sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][44][46] - Hot-Rolled Coil: Similar to rebar, the price rebounds from a low level due to macro sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][44][46] - Silicon Ferroalloy: The main production areas announce maintenance plans, and the price is expected to be strong in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 1 [2][47][50] - Manganese Ferroalloy: The port quotes show a strong willingness to increase, and the price is expected to be strong in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 1 [2][47][50] - Coke: The sentiment recovers, and the price fluctuates widely. The trend intensity is 0 [2][52][56] - Coking Coal: Similar to coke, the sentiment recovers, and the price fluctuates widely. The trend intensity is 0 [2][53][56] - Steam Coal: The coal mine inventory increases, and the price is expected to be weak in a volatile range. The trend intensity is 0 [2][57][59] - Log: The price fluctuates repeatedly boosted by macro expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][60][63] - Para-Xylene: The price is expected to be strong unilaterally [2][64] - PTA: The strategy is to go long on PX and short on PTA [2][64] - MEG: The strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG [2][64] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The pressure is released periodically, and there may be support at the bottom [2][4][64] - Soybean Oil: The tariff expectation eases, and the macro impact is evident [2][4][64] - Soybean Meal: The trade friction eases, and the US soybean price rises, so the Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][4][66] - Soybean: The price rebounds and fluctuates [2][4][66] - Corn: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile range [2][4][68] - Sugar: The price will consolidate within a range [2][4][69] - Cotton: The optimistic market sentiment drives the cotton futures price to rebound [2][4][70] - Egg: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile range [2][4][72] - Live Pig: Waiting for the contradiction to be released [2][4][73] - Peanut: The spot price is strong [2][4][74]